The Recovery - Or Not -

[cieldumort]

Links to some stories that try to figure it all out

Baseline Scenario: Recovery - Or Not - In Pictures
...We are now in that phase of the crisis when there is a lot of arguing about whether things are going well or poorly, and that largely comes down to whether the current slowdown in the rate at which things are getting worse (that’s all it is so

Comments

[capthek]

Calculated risk is really a great place for data, but I still think Obamas stimulus will bring us at least into stagnation until we get a new high tech bubble in the teens.

[cieldumort]

It is, indeed. Although, most of the data in this post doesn't come from CR lol

Let me make sure my eyes have been hearing you right lately... have you indeed scaled back a little bit on your outlook for this year and next?

[capthek]

Lol, no. This is what happens. Someone says huge growth and I say no slow growth. Then someone will say negative growth and I will say, no slow growth. I may sound like I am saying multiple things because my position seems to be the moderate one out there, in-between others. My position has been and continues to be slow but positive growth this summer or fall at the latest and that will be sustained rather than a double or triple dip. I don't like how low it will be as it wont help bring unemployment down as soon as I would like.

[cieldumort]

Ok... well, it also comes down to definitions... as defined by most people, "slow growth" is quarterly GDP running at an annualized rate of between 2 and 2.5%, roughly. Less than 2% is really worse than "slow growth" to most, I believe. Really, between 0.1% and 1% is, quite frankly, really recessionary, because it's way, way, way within the margin of error, as GDP accounting goes. Between 1% and 2% is almost always a growth recession. 2% and 2.5% typically starts to feel like growth, however, "slow" growth.