Good Luck With Powerball, Because Recession 2016
Welcome back to The Recession!
It's been a while. You may have felt that recovery these past seven years. Pretty good, huh? All vested in those stocks? Enjoying the spreading of wealth? Part of the 1%, yes?
.........
Leading, and now a growing chorus of coincident indicators, are flagging a new Global Recession in 2016. Now to the US's credit, we have indeed seen a record duration of consecutive private sector jobs growth, and that is nothing to complain about. Unless of course you consider that a startling large percentage of this job growth has been in minimum wage, or just-above-minimum-wage positions. Also, as ECRI keeps pointing out, a large number of these counted 'full-time' employees are actually workers who have 'cobbled together' enough part-time gigs to add up to 35 or more hours a week story. And at eight fucks an hour, it's a pretty safe bet that a lot more than 35 hours are being totaled up, somehow, someway, for anyone that wants to not live in a cardboard box on the corner of Hope and Less.
But, not you. You've been living on the corner of Wall and Street, and I'm sure every day lately as you've watched as your offshore accounts rocket to new highs, you plan out your next vacation, perhaps in your Davos summer 4000 sq foot cabin. Bravo!
US Federal Reserve Plans to Give Everyone Raises in 2016!
Sarcasm aside, it is a more treacherous time than we have maybe seen in the last five years, and possibly longer. Good thing the Yellen Fed has more incremental raises planned for your wallet in this time of plenty!
The List of Recession 2016 Calls Keeps Growing
The list of forecasts for recession in 2016 is growing, and growing, and growing, and definitely not just from the doomers and permabears, either. Here's a sampling:
Citibank: China leading world towards global economic recession
A brutal slowdown across emerging markets will hurl the global economy into a fresh recession
(Article from The Telegraph)
A “hard landing” for the Chinese economy will likely lead the world into a recession in the next year, Citi’s global economics team has warned.
Analysts at the Wall Street bank believe that a slowdown concentrated in emerging markets will drag down demand and see economic activity fall well below its potential across the world.
They anticipate the global economy to slide into recessionary territory (in 2016), and remain there for most of 2017.
Full story here
RBS:'Sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries. 'This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small'
(Article from The Telegraph)
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note." Full story here
SocGen's Edwards: S&P will plunge 75% on China deflation
(Article from CNBC)
A falling Chinese yuan will unleash a wave of global deflation that will send the U.S. into its next recession and pull the S&P 500 back down to 550 points, according to a strategist at Societe Generale." Full story here
David Levy: Global recession intensifying and engulfing the world’s economies
(Article from Barron's)
Although the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, it doesn’t have enough strength to fend off weakening fundamentals elsewhere, particularly in the emerging markets... And he worries that China will have a very tough time making a soft landing as it tries to refocus. Full story here.
It's been a while. You may have felt that recovery these past seven years. Pretty good, huh? All vested in those stocks? Enjoying the spreading of wealth? Part of the 1%, yes?
.........
Leading, and now a growing chorus of coincident indicators, are flagging a new Global Recession in 2016. Now to the US's credit, we have indeed seen a record duration of consecutive private sector jobs growth, and that is nothing to complain about. Unless of course you consider that a startling large percentage of this job growth has been in minimum wage, or just-above-minimum-wage positions. Also, as ECRI keeps pointing out, a large number of these counted 'full-time' employees are actually workers who have 'cobbled together' enough part-time gigs to add up to 35 or more hours a week story. And at eight fucks an hour, it's a pretty safe bet that a lot more than 35 hours are being totaled up, somehow, someway, for anyone that wants to not live in a cardboard box on the corner of Hope and Less.
But, not you. You've been living on the corner of Wall and Street, and I'm sure every day lately as you've watched as your offshore accounts rocket to new highs, you plan out your next vacation, perhaps in your Davos summer 4000 sq foot cabin. Bravo!
US Federal Reserve Plans to Give Everyone Raises in 2016!
Sarcasm aside, it is a more treacherous time than we have maybe seen in the last five years, and possibly longer. Good thing the Yellen Fed has more incremental raises planned for your wallet in this time of plenty!
The List of Recession 2016 Calls Keeps Growing
The list of forecasts for recession in 2016 is growing, and growing, and growing, and definitely not just from the doomers and permabears, either. Here's a sampling:
Citibank: China leading world towards global economic recession
A brutal slowdown across emerging markets will hurl the global economy into a fresh recession
(Article from The Telegraph)
A “hard landing” for the Chinese economy will likely lead the world into a recession in the next year, Citi’s global economics team has warned.
Analysts at the Wall Street bank believe that a slowdown concentrated in emerging markets will drag down demand and see economic activity fall well below its potential across the world.
They anticipate the global economy to slide into recessionary territory (in 2016), and remain there for most of 2017.
Full story here
RBS:'Sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries. 'This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small'
(Article from The Telegraph)
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note." Full story here
SocGen's Edwards: S&P will plunge 75% on China deflation
(Article from CNBC)
A falling Chinese yuan will unleash a wave of global deflation that will send the U.S. into its next recession and pull the S&P 500 back down to 550 points, according to a strategist at Societe Generale." Full story here
David Levy: Global recession intensifying and engulfing the world’s economies
(Article from Barron's)
Although the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, it doesn’t have enough strength to fend off weakening fundamentals elsewhere, particularly in the emerging markets... And he worries that China will have a very tough time making a soft landing as it tries to refocus. Full story here.