What's Crimea all about?

[luvdovz]

Everyone seems to be exercising their quills over the Ukraine/Crimea topic, so I thought, what the hell. Why not jump on the bandwagon? So here goes.

Comments

[hardblue]

That’s the best piece I’ve come across, laying out the basic groundwork of history and interests. Let me ask a basic question. If, as expected, the West is not going to do anything militarily, does Putin have anything to be concerned about in steamrolling over the Ukrainians?, being willing to swallow international sanctions, figuring that these sanctions will melt away in time. It seems obvious that there is so much for Putin to gain, and that the West is not going to go to war. Is there any real thought that the Ukrainians can put up a meaningful fight against a straight takeover?

[luvdovz]

The Ukrainian military is not exactly like the Georgian military. Ukraine is mobilizing its reserves as we speak, in an effort to dissuade Putin from flexing his muscle even more. Ukraine has a huge military compared to any other former Russian satellite, so the Abkhazian/South-Ossetian scenario is simply unthinkable in this occasion. And I'm not even mentioning the nukes, because those are meant to be a static deterrent rather than a viable option.

It's still a game of nerves at this point, and Putin is fully aware that if the Ukrainians decide to put up a real fight, he's going to suffer losses unseen since WW2 and incomparable to Afghanistan. No one wants this - at either side of the border. It would be a huge rallying factor for Ukraine, and a huge blow for Putin at home; not to mention the international repercussions. And I'm not merely speaking of direct sanctions - it's true that those wouldn't have much of an effect on Russia; I'm speaking of international isolation, which, given the current direction of the Russian economy,

[hardblue]

I didn't even know that the Ukrainians were that strong.
This being the case, I actually can see a way for the West
to go in, or at least how this would be one of the repercussions
that Putin may need to worry about. That is, the West may not be
likely to come in and take on Russia on its own, but it might well be willing
to give Ukraine an extra push in an ongoing war, I imagine.

[luvdovz]

That would be a logical scenario, yes. And much in line with the modern way of doing geopolitics: i.e. via proxies. Moreover, the West would have the justification for it, namely aiding the Ukrainian people in their struggle for freedom and sovereignty, etc.

[mahnmut]

And, since the international community has already established that self-determination ought to be the primary factor in such things (reference: Kosovo), then by that same standard the people in Crimea are supposed to have the final say on the matter. At least, in case said international community actually cared about consistency, as opposed to masquerading Realpolitik behind the facade of some imaginary democratic principles.

Compelling point. Betting on it falling on deaf ears.

[htpcl]

Looking at that map of the gas pipelines, one can't help but conclude that we Bulgarians are doomed to forever remain on the path of the Russian "interests". In this sense, there can never be full independence from Big Ivan, while energy routes define international politics in the region. Sadly, our current Socialist rulers have been proving this time and time again, doing Putin's bidding at every step.

Really liked this overview, for the record.

[fizzyland]

Thank you for educating me on the topic. This is the sort of post that shows exactly why live journal remains relevant.

[the_rukh]

Two things:

One, former Amabassardor Sir Tony Brenton doesn't really speak for the UK. I think he's being a bit more sensational than the real rhetoric coming out of the UK. To be sure the UK, France, US etc are threatening political repercussions, but at this time, it's on the diplomatic and economic level. That could change, but it hasn't changed yet, so what Sir Brenton is saying isn't quite the way things are at the moment.

Secondly, if Crimea wasn't to secede, ok that can happen, but this isn't the way it happens in a lawful world. They should make it a political action and do it. it's not the right of Russia to jump in to a sovereign country and make it so.

Also I want to quickly point out my hunch is that Russia isn't going to do much more than they have.

[luvdovz]

What they should do and what they can/will do, could turn out to be two entirely different things. Might makes right, as we all know. And in this case, they might be feeling that the "incredible" might of Mother Russia is behind them, and that could encourage them to go to whatever lengths they're capable of. Which is not to say that they'd succeed, mind you.

Point taken about the former ambassador.

[the_rukh]

Sure, it could happen. My hunch is about what they will do, but who can say. I don't think they're just going to back down, Russia and especially Putin aren't going to lose face that way. its a very volatile environment and as we've seen small events can snowball quickly. You could have some minor private violence between two neighbors snowball in to ethnic clashes that Russia feels responsible for imposing on, or you could have things cool off. Very unstable.

[mikeyxw]

The comparison to the succession of Kosovo really doesn't make that much sense though. Sure, Kosovo unilaterally succeeded but the Crimea is being forcibly annexed by Russia. There is a big difference. If, after years of oppression and an attempt by the Ukraine to forcibly remove ethnic Russians from Crimea, the Crimea declares independence and Russia recognized it, then it'd be close. In this case, we're missing the humanitarian crisis and the declaration by Crimeans to split with Ukraine and we've just got the Russians annexing a bit of their neighbor. This isn't a lack of consistency, it's a different situation.