Post-victory, pre-normalisation

[nairiporter]

The Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada has voted for the deposition of president Yanukovych and set the date for new elections on May 25. Naturally, a speaker of the president has instantly announced that he rejects this decision as illegitimate. Still, the vote for Yanukovych's impeachment was supported by 328 out of 450 MPs, who reportedly met

Comments

[abomvubuso]

New development:

Ukraine arrest warrant for fugitive ex-leader Yanukovych

[underlankers]

Even if it does not last, the prospect of a relatively peaceful restoration of Yulia Tymoshenko would be a better prospect than a civil war. At the very least it should offer some hope for Ukrainians that might not otherwise have existed. But you're right that the current situation has only come to a beginning, not an end.

[htpcl]

Yulia Tymoshenko, a leader who's become a symbol of the not-so-happy-past, who'll now promise to magically change overnight, and lead the country into the bright new future?

That same Yulia Tymoshenko who in 2009 was ready to strike a deal with Yanukovych and do his bidding and change the Constitution to his liking, solely for the sake of preserving her position and keeping her judicial immunity intact so she wouldn't be prosecuted for her corruption?

Gee. If that's the one who'll be leading Ukraine toward reform, then Ukraine is truly fucked.

[underlankers]

As I recall, this was the same pattern with say, Benazhir Bhutto, whose past and that of her family seemed to be rather overlooked when *she* returned to Pakistan. But yes, Ukraine is stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea. I was trying to be optimistic in hoping that the prospect of a large-scale civil war wasn't going to ensue, was all.

[abomvubuso]

Ukraine does need a leader to rally behind, but what it needs even more urgently is a set of pragmatists running things for a while, at least until the economy steps back on its feet.

As the euphoria from the "victory" of the new Ukrainian revolution is gradually fading, the grim economic reality will come back with a vengeance.

Right now, Ukraine urgently needs a $35bn aid, or it'll slip down into a free-fall. And that's just step one, which should be quickly followed by reforms that will certainly be very unpopular. Given the apparent lack of politicians with a large enough credit of trust from the public, and the guts and expertise to deliver that, I'm afraid Ukraine may have to look back to Russia as the most immediate saviour, sooner than many people in the West might be hoping for.

[peamasii]

Interesting commentary from Stratfor on Ukraine's post-Yanukovych problems

Ukraine Turns From Revolution to Recovery