Israel's Muslim brother

[nairiporter]

http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2025708.html

Although it is a predominantly Shia Muslim country, Azerbaijan has a complicated relationship with its neighbour Iran. And meanwhile it maintains good relations with Israel, based on mutual benefit from the arms-for-oil exchange.

In the geographic sense, Azerbaijan (roughly the size of Austria) is in one

Comments

[abomvubuso]

Whatever the Azeri officials say, the likelihood of a military strike on Iran has increased since Israel now practically has a military launching pad on the Caspian coast.

Meanwhile, Israel should seriously consider their options, should they proceed with the military scenario. They should do some thorough assessment of their aircraft capabilities, then perhaps they'd begin to realise that taking down Iran's nuclear capacity on their own is a steep slope to climb for them. Perhaps the US could do that job better on their behalf, so I'm guessing they'd play the situation in such a way as to force America's hand rather than doing the dirty job themselves.

[htpcl]

The scenario sounds Israelish enough.

[kylinrouge]

Attacking Iran unprovoked would be the greatest act of belligerism in the 21st cen- er, since the Iraq War. Wait, we can't go 10 years without an unjustified invasion of another country?

[mahnmut]

Oh, rest assured there'll be a justification for it. That's the easiest part.

[underlankers]

Somehow it actually doesn't surprise me that a state that deliberately pursues moderate Islam would not want the Islamic Republic as a next-door neighbor. OTOH, Israel v. Armenia over this aid to Azerbaijan would see Israel rip right through Armenia like a ripsaw through balsa wood.

[nairiporter]

Israel v Armenia? Why would Israel get involved with Armenia?

[underlankers]

Because of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia's view it's entitled to Azerbaijani-controlled territory for no other reason than Armenians are sitting on it.

[nairiporter]

I'm afraid I still cannot see the connection.

[danalwyn]

There's been a lot of speculation about this recently, mostly because it's the only scenario that makes the Azeri weapons purchases make sense. Azerbaijan seems to be worried about someone, and it increasingly looks like it's Iran, and not Armenia, they're having problems with. And of course, if you want an ally against Iran, Israel might be your best bet.

I'm a bit surprised that they're on the outs with Turkey though. I would expect the Azeris to be playing both sides of that fence, especially given how Turkey and Armenia get on. Well, I guess traditional enemies aren't what they used to be.

[nairiporter]

Azerbaijan and Turkey are probably the two tightest allies in the entire region. It's just that Turkey refuses to be used as NATO's tool any more, given their plans to assert a new role in the region. And Azerbaijan may see a chance to take Turkey's place as the West's tool.

Just a speculation.

Arming oneself does not necessarily mean a build-up to war. Often times it is used as a deterrent, as if sending a message to your neighbours "Do not mess with me".

[danalwyn]

Yes, but arming yourself is interesting because it tells the world who you're trying to deter. Up until a few years ago Azerbaijan seemed to be focused entirely on Armenia. Now it seems to have shifted toward Iran. It's an interesting change.

(It's hard for anyone to be NATO's tool right now, since NATO doesn't know what it wants anymore. That being said, Turkey's been playing its own game for a while now. I wonder if they'll slip into being Azerbaijan's patron if things get worse there).