Chicago Sun-Times, a #1 Newspaper in Chicago? Not so fast
While reading the last Wednesday’s issue of Naperville Sun (one of Sun-Times Media’s suburban newspapers), I came across a house ad that thanked the readers for making Chicago Sun-Times the #1 daily newspaper in Chicago area.
Right away, I knew something was amiss.
See, ever since the 1950s or so, Chicago Tribune was the biggest fish in the sea that is Chicago land media landscape. Chicago Sun-Times has been the second-biggest - sometimes close second, sometimes farther second, but it never, ever sold more copies then the Tribune.
If that really happened, it would have been a HUGE deal. Everybody in Chicagoland media would be talking about it. But they hadn’t.
Curious, did a little Google search and came across a press release from April 30, 2013. The first paragraph said that, yes, the Alliance for Audited Media did declare that Chicago Sun-Times beat the Tribune in Monday-Friday circulation.
Now, the first paragraph is kind of vague about whether the circulation numbers for Chicago Sun-Times or all Sun-Times media put together. But let’s assume that you didn’t read the press release carefully and didn’t notice that bit of fine print. Here is how the numbers would compare.
Circl.
Chicago Tribune
"Chicago Sun-Times"
Weekday
414,930
470,548
Saturday
321,190
268,412
Sunday
781,324
406,093
On the surface, it looks like Chicago Sun-Times is beating Tribune on weekdays, while Chicago Tribune does better on weekdays - especially on Sunday. Problem is, what this table shows shouldn’t happen. Here’s why.
If you are a daily newspaper, Sunday issues tend to sell the best, weekdays issues second-best and Saturday issues worst of all. It’s the reason why Sunday sections tend to be the thickest and have the most advertising, and why Saturday issues tend to be wimpy things with less sections then usual.
So why, then, are Sun-Times’ weekday issues doing better than Sunday issues?
The answer is in the aforementioned fine print. The first paragraph kind of alludes to it, saying that circulation is up for Chicago Sun-Times and its’ “regional branded publications.” But it’s not until the final paragraph that the press release spells out what that means.
These numbers include the flagship Chicago Sun-Times newspaper together with its daily and weekly suburban titles across the Chicago region
As you may recall from my earlier post, in addition to Chicago Sun-Times, Sun-Times media includes 7 daily newspapers and 32 weekly newspapers. As I found out while double-checking my facts, the “7 daily newspapers” isn’t quite true as winter 2011 - [Aurora] Beacon-Sun, [Elgin] Courier-News and [Joliet] Herald-News don’t release issues on Saturdays, while the Naperville Sun only releases three issues a week - on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.
But bottom line is - the 32 Pioneer Press newspapers help to increase the weekday numbers, Beacon-Sun, Courier-News, Herald-News and Naperville Sun help to drive up weekday and Sunday numbers, while Southtown Star, Post-Tribune and Lake County News-Sun drive up all three sets of numbers.
The question then becomes, naturally - so what is Chicago Sun-Times’ actual circulation? The press release answers that question in the next sentence.
Circl.
Chicago Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
Sun-Times Media
Weekday
414,930
262,461
470,548
Saturday
321,190
236,762
268,412
Sunday
781,324
255,302
406,093
Looking at the numbers like this, it’s clear that Chicago Sun-Times is still very much lagging behind Chicago Tribune. It’s still a #2 newspaper in Chicagoland - no other publication in Illinois comes even close.
Now, why would Wrapports make a house ad talking about being #1 newspaper in Chicago area, when anybody who wants who doubts that claim could debunk it in seconds?
Advertising, mostly. these days, while many companies want to advertise locally, the larger businesses tend to prefer newspapers that could bring their ads to several parts of Chicagoland (if not entire Greater Chicagoland region). There are three groups of people that care about circulation numbers - media pundits, investors and advertisers. And if you’re a company that wants to put ads into the hands of as many newspaper readers as possible, Sun-Times Media is going to look a lot better then Chicago Tribune. The fact that Sun-Times Media figures represent 40 newspapers rather then one is beside the point to advertisers - the ads are out there to the number of people Sun-Times media says is gong to reach is all that matters.
This actually helps to explain something I’ve been wondering about for quite a while - why does Wrapports keep the newspapers that aren’t Chicago Sun-Times or Chicago Reader around. After all, Chicago Sun-Times’ coverage overlaps with other 39 newspapers. But looking at the numbers, its clear that, together, nearly double their numbers on weekdays and Sundays. It doesn’t completely ease my concerns, but it makes me feel a little bit more secure about Pioneer Press’ future.
Just a little bit.
I’m also curious about where the increase is coming from. If you compare Chicago Sun-Times’ circulation for between this May and last May, the numbers have actually dropped
May 2012
May 2013
Difference
Weekday
269,489
262,461
-4,028
Sunday
270,598
255,302
-15,296
Chicago Reader writers have mentioned that the alt weekly is the most profitable newspaper and this year’s press release does say that Chicago Reader numbers were counted for the first time, but I’m not sure how it works. According to its website, Alliance for Audited Media circulation figures are “total average paid circulation.” Chicago Reader is a free newspaper.
According to the latest circulation numbers I was able to find, Chicago Reader’s circulation was 85,635. The Sun-Times Media 2012 circulation was 422,335, which means that this year, the circulation increased by 48,213. Now, one would be tempted to assume that 48,213 number was the number of Reader circulation. But Reader’s Michael Miner quoted Sun-Times Media EIC Jim Kirk as saying that the paper’s circulation hasn’t dropped, so that can’t be it.
Somewhere, somehow, other 39 newspapers’ numbers are increasing. There is no way to know which ones are responsible for the increase, but given that the increase is only on weekdays, and Pioneer Press newspapers can only contribute to weekday circulation...
That makes me more optimistic - cautiously optimistic, but optimistic nonetheless.