Bits and pieces
Good afternoon.
Anybody else wish yesterday's stock plunge had happened today instead, so we could add Tantrum Tuesday to the list of famous days in market history? But statistically speaking, we get one of those on average either seven years or every 4.3 years, depending upon how you average. It's been seven years since the last one, so, arguably, it was right on schedule. Idly, the Dow closed up 487 points, which is to say, the third largest point jump ever, which is to say, 49 points above its trading level before the bailout vote on Monday. Yee, doggies!
Marketwatch opinion calls for a Bank Holiday to force Congress to pass the so-called bailout. On the other hand, they also note that the "yes" voters were backed 2-1 by Wall Street firms over "no" voters. Meanwhile Mr. Bush is pushing to revisit the Paulson plan, and - no link, sorry - reportedly the US Chamber of Commerce Conference Call with White House officials today was largey about the PR campaign for revisiting the plan.
The political involvement, though, doesn't indicate that there's not a problem. Brad Setzer talks about problems at the Fed, and is of the opinion that while Treasury demand collapse possibilities should not be ignored, he thinks there's still some maneuvering room. I understand his reasoning but am unconvinced - particularly when I see charts like these. And you think the TED is scary? Well, okay, it is. But damn, the LIBOR is made entirely of ph33r. (Another story here.) Mish posts an explanation of his plan, and why the Paulson plan fails, here.
Inexplicably, Consumer Confidence edged higher this month, despite everything in that poll I mentioned earlier. But that's early in the month, so we'll see how well that holds up. (I rather expect not.) Even Marketwatch's analysis says the number is bullshit. And while discussing bullshit, remember that WHAT THE HELL?! I posted earlier about financial institutions being allowed to book "good will" as capital for meeting capitalisation requirements? They just released the rules change. Comments accepted through 30 October, the day before Halloween. How fitting.
eta: Damn, how did I miss this? Senator McCain says the Treasury should go ahead with its plan, only make it US$1T, and don't wait for Congress to authorise it. Awesome. By which I mean impeachable!
eta2: Bwah ha ha ha ha! Okay, so get this: the GOP had planned to get the bailout to pass, barely, with mostly Democratic support in the House but with just enough Republicans to get it over the threshold - so they could immediately turn around and start running attack ads against the bill they'd insure passed by the slimmest of majorities. Problem is, the bills didn't pass, but the ads were already placed. EPIC FAIL. (Link courtesy filkertom.)
Anybody else wish yesterday's stock plunge had happened today instead, so we could add Tantrum Tuesday to the list of famous days in market history? But statistically speaking, we get one of those on average either seven years or every 4.3 years, depending upon how you average. It's been seven years since the last one, so, arguably, it was right on schedule. Idly, the Dow closed up 487 points, which is to say, the third largest point jump ever, which is to say, 49 points above its trading level before the bailout vote on Monday. Yee, doggies!
Marketwatch opinion calls for a Bank Holiday to force Congress to pass the so-called bailout. On the other hand, they also note that the "yes" voters were backed 2-1 by Wall Street firms over "no" voters. Meanwhile Mr. Bush is pushing to revisit the Paulson plan, and - no link, sorry - reportedly the US Chamber of Commerce Conference Call with White House officials today was largey about the PR campaign for revisiting the plan.
The political involvement, though, doesn't indicate that there's not a problem. Brad Setzer talks about problems at the Fed, and is of the opinion that while Treasury demand collapse possibilities should not be ignored, he thinks there's still some maneuvering room. I understand his reasoning but am unconvinced - particularly when I see charts like these. And you think the TED is scary? Well, okay, it is. But damn, the LIBOR is made entirely of ph33r. (Another story here.) Mish posts an explanation of his plan, and why the Paulson plan fails, here.
Inexplicably, Consumer Confidence edged higher this month, despite everything in that poll I mentioned earlier. But that's early in the month, so we'll see how well that holds up. (I rather expect not.) Even Marketwatch's analysis says the number is bullshit. And while discussing bullshit, remember that WHAT THE HELL?! I posted earlier about financial institutions being allowed to book "good will" as capital for meeting capitalisation requirements? They just released the rules change. Comments accepted through 30 October, the day before Halloween. How fitting.
eta: Damn, how did I miss this? Senator McCain says the Treasury should go ahead with its plan, only make it US$1T, and don't wait for Congress to authorise it. Awesome. By which I mean impeachable!
eta2: Bwah ha ha ha ha! Okay, so get this: the GOP had planned to get the bailout to pass, barely, with mostly Democratic support in the House but with just enough Republicans to get it over the threshold - so they could immediately turn around and start running attack ads against the bill they'd insure passed by the slimmest of majorities. Problem is, the bills didn't pass, but the ads were already placed. EPIC FAIL. (Link courtesy filkertom.)