Oily predictions

[skthewimp]

I propose a new business model. Make a seemingly outrageous long-range prediction. It could just be anything, but you might want to stick to the financial world. Once you have decided on the prediction to make, think up of about six possible reasons why this prediction could come true. Given that the prediction in itself is outrageous, it shouldn't

Comments

[anonymous]

1.I'm not sure what you're thinking..Firstly Arjun Murti made the 'outrageous' comment long before.He lived a life of rebuff and ridicule for nearly 2 odd years.Nevertheless He was consistent in his stand(considering that such things are difficult in financial sector

[anonymous]

"I'm not asserting that Mr. Murti is not brilliant. All I say is that there is no guarantee that he is a genius"
"he was lucky"

(Sorry again) was that brief of the story?

-RP

[anonymous]

+1

[skthewimp]

let me clarify at the outset that I'm not sure of what i'm saying. All I'm saying is that what I'm saying may be true.

I'm not sure you got my argument. what i'm saying is that if you make an outrageous position, you aer in a no-lose position. if it comes true, you become a hero. if it doesn't you make sure everyone forgets about it. I think the others who made similar outlandish predictions have done just that - laid low.

what we see here is something called selection bias.

I predict...

[dakini_bones]

that gas prices will rise *more* and that people will change their driving habits to conserve *a little*, (like taking public transit) especially the poorer sections of the population.

Another approach is the "bleeding obvious...at some time in the future" approach.
Dwindling supply of fossil fuels? Prices will go up! Gasp! Genius!
lol!

Re: I predict...

[skthewimp]

i have no clue where oil prices will go. it's too tough and random to call.

[aneeta_04]

thanks for the tailpiece, I googled up and found that there are tests for divisibility by 7. I guess for larger numbers, one would require recursive divisiblity tests !
Btw, didnt the school recognize or appreciate or honor you for avoiding an embarrassing incident ??

[skthewimp]

there's no simple test. nad this guy came up with one.

and no - that's another thing with randomness. your contribution needs to be marked and visible. no recognition for me for this.

as Taleb says in his books, suppose someone had managed to find out about the 9/11 plot and helped prevent it, how famous would he have been today? how much credit would he have got? think of all those who have tipped off police about bombs. do you know any of their names?

[aneeta_04]

something related to this post, so write it some where behind your math note, wait for the DH to arrive, then go admist the crowd and prove him false, it would have been a news item ! Again, its a probability !

[prabhakarkudva]

We really don't need an arjun murthy to tell us what is common sense.Oil is a scarce commodity and given a reasonable time frame it is going to dwindle.I am 23 now and i predict that by the time i am 40,oil would cost the world about $400 or may be more.And yes i have a few investments(call it early retirement planning if you will)based on that call,so i guess that makes the prediction more credible!So start accumulating Reliance,Cairn and HOEL(RJ aka Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds a chunk of this,and he is no crazy man) in your long term(5-10 + years) portfolios.

[skthewimp]

i refuse to get into this prediction business. I think i'm quite bad at this. oil is a tricky business since a few large players control its extraction. i'm not hazarding a guess.

look - I think your'e doing the right thing. if oil prices are indeed $400 when you are 40, you can point people to this comment of yours and becoem great.

else, you can rest assuerd no one will rememberthis and you don't lose anything

[prabhakarkudva]

Oil is a tricky business, yes and i am not "predicting"(in the trading sense) either.My point is,the fact that oil will be much costlier a decade down the line is very common sensical and we don't need an economist to tell us that.

And i totally agree with you that to make a REALLY long term prediction like this one is a win win all the way,the kind of things Warren buffet says about investing "forever" in stocks, and he never really talks about how he makes a lot of money doing complex arbitrage deals,things which can go wrong short term and something people like me would love to hear :)

[1pi00te005]

On the contrary, the fact is the real value of most commodities, ie metals, oils, foods etc, has been falling of you look at the last 50 years.

And 50 years ago also people had said that ya - we are using up metals etc so of course prices will forever go up - but they didn't!

Many things may happen namely :

a) More reserves of oil will be discovered and pumped
b) We will switch to other and more efficient energy sources such as nuclear, solar, tidal etc etc (lot of people working on these technologies today)
c) We discover more and more efficient machines which use less and less fuel
d) All of the above.

Basically anything can happen - it is actually not that obvious regarding the direction of fuel prices.

[prabhakarkudva]

But mind you i am not predicting what might happen the next year or the year after that to oil prices.I am sure the commodity bubble will burst sooner than later but over the long term oil is only going northwards!