Systematic Misplaying of AK in NL HE Cash Games, Part 3
In the previous installments, I discussed the classic AK plays, and how they fail to be optimal play in modern NL HE cash games. In this final installment, I explore some common thinking about AK. I believe certain misunderstood recommendations have led people to play AK incorrectly in cash games.
Brunson's original AK recommendations, of course, have had an influence that leads to some misunderstanding, but I believe that the media interest in tournament NL HE has had a greater impact. Bob Ciaffone has called AK (particularly suited) the "the workhorse of tournament no-limit hold'em," (see also Bob's other AK article) and I would never presume to contradict Bob. However, he notes in his articles specific reasons it has become such a favorite hand for tournament play. There are few key factors that make it great for tournament situations, but those reasons simply do not apply in cash games.
Limited implied odds
Often, AK play in a NL HE tournament involves committing your entire stack before the flop. In a cash game, it is rare that one would have such a short stack that would demand making an all-in move preflop with AK. (Indeed, it would probably be an error to play a cash game with a short stack.) Cash games are much more about implied odds and trapping opponents for their whole stack. Parts of tourney play are are that way, too, but that's in the early stages when the blinds are low. Late in the tournament, AK becomes a monster holding, and the AK-all-in becomes a very important play when the blinds are large in relation to short stacks. With such a play, you force opponents to pick up a hand that can call an all-in bet for a large percentage of their stack (and thus a large percentage of their equity in the prize pool). They have no implied odds to try and outflop you; they must decide if they want to risk a substantial part of their tournament equity right there. It becomes a purely mathematical question based on their holdings and their read on you.
Building a similar situation in a cash game is difficult, for many reasons. First, some people who play cash games have a lot of money to burn, and have come to gamble. If they are wealthy, they know they can buy-in again if they lose their stack, so they don't fear that "the fun is done if I call". Even the loosest gambler might feel that in a no-rebuy tournament; no one likes to go home. Second, in cash game play, the blinds, limps, or small raises ahead of you are rarely substantial in relation to your stack. Even if you play cash games short stacked, is it worth betting $80 to pick up $12, or even $20? In late tournament play, picking up the dead money could mean the difference between a round of play. A single round of play late in a tournament could mean substantial prize ladder increases. In a cash game, if the blinds threaten you, you're likely just to lose your stack and have to rebuy (or go home) anyway. Folding Equity Against Medium Pairs
Since most AK tournament situations are all-in before a flop is dealt, and since all but huge chip-leaders cannot call without damage when you move in, AK can force folds of many hands that are beating it. While an excellent preflop player like John Juanda can seem to make the right call every time with a middle pair against AK, mere mortals cannot do this with reliability frequently enough to make the calls mathematically correct. In tournaments, players also move in with pairs of TT and above just as frequently as with AK. This gives AK huge bluffing power before the flop when their is a tournament prize pool in the balance, and the opponent holds an equally-sized stack and a middle pair.
By the way, let's please be clear about this: moving in with AK before the flop in NL HE is nearly always,at best, a semi-bluff! This is because the only hand that can call an all-in from AK is usually a pair. Despite the blabber about "coin flips" and "racing a pair vs. overcards" made by televised tournament commentators, the truth is that the pair is always the favorite. Indeed, the odds are almost always as bad as 55% vs. 45% when your AK is unsuited. You gain only a few percentage points on that from suitedness. Also, if you are the reraiser preflop, there is a high probability that the original raiser opened with one ace or one king in his hand. The fact that one of your cards may be dead (because an initial raiser folds one of them before that middle pair calls you) will suck another 4% or so away from your equity.
So, don't think so much about these being coin flips. They aren't! Maybe it's a race, but you're running uphill. Think about it: I don't think I ever played in a poker game where my skill gave me more than a 5-10% edge over the other players. Yet, I am a consistent winner. While 5-10% seems small, over time it's a big edge. If you are always running that pair against your overcards, you are giving up a huge edge.
You want to be on the pair side, not the AK side. These are "crooked coin" flips; you are semi-bluffing when you move in with AK. Of course, big semi-bluffs are a key in NL HE tourney (heck, they're important in cash games, too), but you shouldn't be trying to take those "races" as an underdog. The real winners are the John Juanda's who can read you for AK and make the correct pair call.
... Ok, maybe sometimes you do want "crooked coin" flips.
Most of us aren't professional-quality players like John Juanda. But, in tournaments, you usually have to get your chips in eventually. Doing it with an AK against a pair when you have only nine times the big blind left is (of course) way better than with A8s when you've folded your way down to four times the big blind. In the latter situation, you are likely to be called by every darn hand that beats you in the field.
Tourneys are survival matches, and you have to gamble if you want to survive the attack of the blind escalation. But, this is never true in cash games. Yes, you should pick some spots in tourneys to get your money in as a 45-to-55 dog. But, why do this in a cash game? Unless you have an opponent who always calls you with AJ, KQ, and AQ in that spot as well as all those hands that beat you, you just don't get enough equity to move in preflop with AK! You should hate having AK all-in preflop in a cash game, because despite that occasional AQ, you're going to be up against someone who is a slight favorite. Sometimes, you'll be a huge underdog when your opponent does have KK or AA. Frankly, that coin you keep flipping is bent. Just fold that AK!
Be a Cash Game Player in the Tourney World
So many of your weaker opponents don't understand these fundamental differences between cash games and tournament play. If they have any education about NL HE, it's from the commentators of televised tournament poker. This has been written by others, but I believe that it can't be stated too many times: televised tourney poker is nearly always high-blind final table scenarios. In such play, traditional "hours of play left" NL HE strategy goes out the window and it's an all-in fest. What one learns on TV works great for the last 15 minutes of your average Internet sit-and-go tournament, but it fails in the day-in-day-out cash games that have become just as common.
If you are a thoughtful player, you can do better than your opponents. Focus on learning what it means to play NL cash games. Don't allow tournament thinking to have undue influence on your cash games decisions.
We All Struggle Here
I admit myself that I struggled with this issue for almost a year as I learned how to play NL HE. In part, I struggled because there are only a few books on the market that cover NL and PL cash game structures. For example, if you regularly play NL HE cash games and have not read Ciaffone and Stewart's Pot-Limit & No-Limit Poker, you are missing the best education you can get from a book on NL HE play. I actually am rereading that now myself and plan to write a review soon, and I am planning for reviews on other books on NL and PL cash games when they come out.