Comments | rhetoretician: Final Pre-Election Map and Predictions

rhetoretician

Final Pre-Election Map and Predictions

Nov 03, 2008 21:13

Here's the last electoral map before the election, plus my "states to watch" list and my own (ulp!) predictions for the outcome.

I could actually do better by waiting for the next set of polls to be released later tonight and early tomorrow, but enough is enough.

( Final map, things to look for, predictions )

elections, electoral votes, cartograms, barack obama, predictions, presidential politics, john mccain

Comments 15

girlspell November 4 2008, 02:30:09 UTC

Wow...I thought for sure McCain would lose Florida. The heart of the US is still red. Reminds me of the old (?) Chinese communist anthem.."the East is Red"

You know, I could see a senerio in which Obama wins the popular vote, but McCain wins the electorial and the election. Sound familar?

rhetoretician November 4 2008, 02:53:39 UTC

I could be wrong about Florida; Obama's still in the lead there. But the movement towards McCain has been so pronounced that I think he has a good shot at it. Also, I'm tending to give McCain the benefit of the doubt in states where the vote is a tie or infinitessimally close (e.g., Missouri).

That scenario you suggest is possible, but unlikely.

hhbarmaid November 4 2008, 02:33:47 UTC

Thanks. This is very interesting and somewhat reassuring. My general feeling is that if Obama wins VA and PA it is pretty much over for McCain. Once I see those come in I may be able to relax a bit.

rhetoretician November 4 2008, 02:55:35 UTC

VA and PA would be the whole election; together they're 34 EVs, which puts Obama over the line. But McCain has been putting everything he's got in PA, and made impressive gains in the last two weeks; he could still win it.

hhbarmaid November 4 2008, 02:59:18 UTC

You are, of course, right. I am just hoping. :sigh:

It would be nice to be able to just start celebrating early!

iamstarmom November 4 2008, 03:37:39 UTC

All of it makes my stomach hurt. But Starbucks is giving out free coffee and babeland is giving out free mini-vibrators. I'm going for both and not turn on the TV till 11:00 pm!

rhetoretician November 4 2008, 05:26:58 UTC

You know, Shelly, you have just managed to take my mind off the election for the first time in a week. My goodness...

tunxeh November 4 2008, 04:12:14 UTC

The presidential race seems safe enough now, but that's not a reason to be complacent and not vote. And I'm still losing sleep over CA Prop.8...

rhetoretician November 4 2008, 05:27:56 UTC

Complacent??? I'm biting my nails!

sherylyn November 4 2008, 04:46:15 UTC

And on an entirely different note... my hubby has just told me that there's some stat that supposedly goes back eons, and if the Washington Redskins win the weekend of the election, the party who has the presidency keeps it. If they lose, the other party wins. Guess which team is losing tonight? ;-) Let's see if it holds true! And if it does, heck, maybe the parties oughta just let the football teams decide it and save the money and aggravation of campaigning ;-)

rhetoretician November 4 2008, 05:33:15 UTC

Didn't work in 2004, though.

There are lots of predictor-myths like that one, some of them based on reality. Taller candidate wins, candidate with longer name wins, incumbent party wins if GNP has grown by more than x% during previous four years, Missouri predicts the result, Missouri and NC together predict result, one particular precinct predicts the result...

Did you know that the most popular given name for presidents is James?

sherylyn November 4 2008, 17:44:53 UTC

I think I'd heard that before (about James), but can't remember for certain.

And yeah, there are plenty of "myths" of all sorts about elections. It's always interesting how the people who "report" on things like that so often leave out the times when it's incorrect, too! I'm interested to see how much you got right this time, though... I'm betting you're right on a good portion of your predictions!