Переоценка угроз

[tijd]

В декабре 2017 я написал про пять возможных будущих событий, которых следует опасаться.

Можно вернуться к этой дискуссии и взглянуть на список снова.

1. Ядерная война.

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По первому пункту Трамп сделал первый шаг к пропасти, заменив Советника по национальной безопасности генерал-лейтенанта Макмастера на Джона Болтона. Свое последнее публичное выступление Макмастер делал в Музее Холокоста и посвятил ситуации в Сирии, включая критику путинского режима.

Sadly, Iran is not Assad’s only sponsor. Russia is also complicit in Assad’s atrocities.
The Russian government has bombed civilian areas and provided political cover for Assad’s crimes. Furthermore, Russia has done nothing to encourage Assad to ensure delivery of humanitarian aid, respect ceasefires and de-escalation agreements, or comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2254’s call for a UN monitored political process.
From February 24 to February 28, Russia conducted twenty bombing missions every day in the Eastern Ghouta and Damascus areas of Syria.
Russia has also repeatedly thwarted efforts by the OPCW to hold the Assad regime accountable for using chemical weapons.
This morning, the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom condemned the abhorrent nerve-agent attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal that took place in Salisbury, United Kingdom on March 4.
The statement made clear that we believe that Russia was responsible for this attack, and we call on the Russian government to answer all questions related to this incident and to provide full information to the OPCW.
No nation-Russia, Syria, or anyone else-should be using chemical weapons and nerve agents.
If Iran and Russia do not stop enabling the regime’s atrocities and adhere to UN Security Council resolutions, all nations must respond more forcefully than simply issuing strong statements.
It is time to impose serious political and economic consequences on Moscow and Tehran.
Assad should not have impunity for his crimes, and neither should his sponsors.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-ltg-h-r-mcmaster-united-states-holocaust-memorial-museum-simon-skjodt-center-syria-worst-yet-come/



Новые санкции в отношении России за атаку в Солсбери включают высылку 60 шпионов под дипломатическим прикрытием и закрытие еще одного консульства, на этот раз в Сиэттле.

In response to this outrageous violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and breach of international law, today the United States will expel 48 Russian officials serving at Russia’s bilateral mission to the United States. We will also require the Russian government to close its Consulate General in Seattle by April 2, 2018. We take these actions to demonstrate our unbreakable solidarity with the United Kingdom, and to impose serious consequences on Russia for its continued violations of international norms. ‎
Separately, we have begun the process of expelling 12 intelligence operatives from the Russian Mission to the United Nations who have abused their privilege of residence in the United States.
The United States calls on Russia to accept responsibility for its actions and to demonstrate to the world that it is capable of living up to its international commitments and responsibilities as a member of the UN Security Council to uphold international peace and security.
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/03/279552.htm

. @AmbJohnBolton tests out the Simply Fit Board... pic.twitter.com/Jb2pFNBCXs
- FOX & friends (@foxandfriends) December 12, 2016

Что касается Джона Болтона, он частично реабилитировал себя за антипутинскую позицию, агитируя за теорию заговора про пристяжные копытца в любимой передаче Вождя Fox and Friends.

The Washington Post reported Friday that the CIA has concluded that Russian hackers leaked documents from Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman to WikiLeaks, in order to swing the election for Trump.
On "Fox & Friends" this morning, Bolton suggested that the hacks could actually be a "false flag" operation perpetrated by a foreign government other than Russia.
Bolton explained that a "false flag" is when a foreign intelligence service conducts an operation and leaves evidence pointing the finger at somebody else.
He said that's a possibility here, because it doesn't make sense for why Russia would inexpertly leave "cyber fingerprints" that trace right back to them.
http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/12/12/john-bolton-suggests-russian-election-hacks-could-be-false-flag-operation

Однако, его фанатичное стремление оккупировать Иран и разбомбить Северную Корею остается в силе.

On March 19, Bolton told Radio Free Asia that he hopes Trump will follow the Libya model in demanding that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, and that it could be a “very short meeting” if Kim refuses. <...> Bolton has repeatedly made the case for a preemptive attack targeting specific nuclear sites, most recently in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on March 1 titled “The Legal Case for Striking North Korea First.” “The threat is imminent,” he wrote. “We should not wait until the very last minute.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/kim-jong-un-and-bolton-learned-very-different-lessons-from-libya

2. «Поджог Рейхстага».
3. Увольнение Мюллера.

По второму пункту новых подвижек пока не заметно. По третьему пункту новым стало то, что Трамп начал упоминать Мюллера в своих твитах.



После озвучивания нападок на Мюллера команду адвокатов Трампа покинул Джон Дауд. Найти ему замену пока не удалось.

Джей Секулов и Тай Кобб пока держатся.



Старый адвокат Майкл Коэн все глубже роет себе яму в скандале со Святой Сторми Дэниелс.

4. Прикручивание расследований в Конгрессе.

Эта угроза наполовину выполнилась. Сворачивая работу своей комиссии, Нунес опубликовал пока что только сводку основных выводов: https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/russia_report_findings_and_recommendations.pdf
В сводке делается ряд сомнительных и спорных утверждений.

Как бы в опровержение, организация Moscow Project опубликовала список фактов:

1. The Trump campaign issued at least 15 blanket denials of contacts with Russia, all of which have been proven false.
2. Extensive reporting, subsequent admissions, and Special Counsel Mueller’s indictments have revealed at least 70 contacts between the Trump team and Russia-linked operatives, despite repeated denials. Among these contacts were 22 meetings (which include Skype calls).
3. At least 22 high-level campaign officials and Trump advisors were aware of contacts between the Trump team and Russia, including the three successive people who ran Trump’s campaign.
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/TODAY/z_Creative/MoscowProject.pdf



Комиссии Сената продолжают работать.

SEN. MARK WARNER: Well we raised the question of microtargeting and Cambridge Analytica as early as March of 17. There's something a little fishy about this firm and we now know that the CEO reached out to Julian Assange, the famous WikiLeaks leader, about hacked emails. We know that this country- this company reported to work with a Russian oil company who was looking about election data in America.
The big question is, Cambridge Analytica, who bragged about how much they helped the Trump campaign microtargeting. Were they just helping the Trump campaign? Were they utilizing some of the Russian misinformation and disinformation? There are legitimate questions that need to be answered. Again, a reason why our investigation needs to continue and why the Mueller investigation needs to continue.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-sen-mark-warner-on-face-the-nation-march-25-2018/

5. Бесплодное окончание расследования Мюллера.

А этой угрозы пока что можно не опасаться. Неизвестно, кому предъявят следующие обвинения, но слухи о новых нитях в расследовании Мюллера просачиваются почти каждый день.