Пузырь Выготского в Год Великого Перелома/Vygotsky Bubble in 2017: The Year of the Great Break!
Today is a historical day, in some sense: it was on this very day two years ago that what subsequently turned into a(n at least a two-year long) longitudinal study was launched! So, we might want to draw some historical parallels and -- tentative yet seemingly convincing -- conclusions. In the interim ;)...
The measurements and data collection will sure be continued. Show must go on! In the meantime, for the sake of comparison, let us have a look at just 'Mind and society' and pick only two specific days: November 3 of 2015 and that of the current 2017. What is of primary interest to us is not the absolute values such as cites numbers, but rather the differences between the values, in other words, the relative values. I might well be wrong on this, but this kind of data appears reliable in our quest for understanding the historical trend. The values of the last five years are analyzed in both years.
Date/Year2013Diff2014Diff2015Diff2016Diff2017
03.11.20176047+806127+1996326-1866140-19004240
Date/Year2011Diff2012Diff2013Diff2014Diff2015
03.11.20154503+2964799+4015200-1075093-15133580
So, what do we see here? In brief, we see the following:
(1) uniformly, for the years (N-4) through (N-2), where N=current year (as of November 3, of 2017 and 2015, respectively), we observe increase, and for (N-2) through (N) there is decrease, -- yet:
(2) the increase in 2015 definitely prevails over that in 2017: cumulative +697 vs. +279, respectively
(3) the decrease in 2017 definitely prevails over that in 2015: cumulative -2086 vs. -1620, respectively.
Thus, it seems, pretty much like a year ago (in Barcelona and elsewhere), I have two news for you, the good and the bad one :).
The good one: Vygotsky is at the peak of his popularity! Hey, hey, guys!! :)
The bad one: yeah, but the trend has definitely changed and Vygotsky appears to have *already* passed the peak in 2017 and, ouch, has *already* started his inadvertent and imminent decline. Ooooops! :))
...
The Vygotsky Bubble seems to have been proven & confirmed! QED ;)
UPDATE of early 2018:
* raw data for 2016 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/13620.html (includes November-December, 2015)
* raw data for 2017 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/15748.html
* raw data for 2018 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/16165.html
The measurements and data collection will sure be continued. Show must go on! In the meantime, for the sake of comparison, let us have a look at just 'Mind and society' and pick only two specific days: November 3 of 2015 and that of the current 2017. What is of primary interest to us is not the absolute values such as cites numbers, but rather the differences between the values, in other words, the relative values. I might well be wrong on this, but this kind of data appears reliable in our quest for understanding the historical trend. The values of the last five years are analyzed in both years.
Date/Year2013Diff2014Diff2015Diff2016Diff2017
03.11.20176047+806127+1996326-1866140-19004240
Date/Year2011Diff2012Diff2013Diff2014Diff2015
03.11.20154503+2964799+4015200-1075093-15133580
So, what do we see here? In brief, we see the following:
(1) uniformly, for the years (N-4) through (N-2), where N=current year (as of November 3, of 2017 and 2015, respectively), we observe increase, and for (N-2) through (N) there is decrease, -- yet:
(2) the increase in 2015 definitely prevails over that in 2017: cumulative +697 vs. +279, respectively
(3) the decrease in 2017 definitely prevails over that in 2015: cumulative -2086 vs. -1620, respectively.
Thus, it seems, pretty much like a year ago (in Barcelona and elsewhere), I have two news for you, the good and the bad one :).
The good one: Vygotsky is at the peak of his popularity! Hey, hey, guys!! :)
The bad one: yeah, but the trend has definitely changed and Vygotsky appears to have *already* passed the peak in 2017 and, ouch, has *already* started his inadvertent and imminent decline. Ooooops! :))
...
The Vygotsky Bubble seems to have been proven & confirmed! QED ;)
UPDATE of early 2018:
* raw data for 2016 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/13620.html (includes November-December, 2015)
* raw data for 2017 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/15748.html
* raw data for 2018 see here: https://psyanimajournal.livejournal.com/16165.html