This was going to be my Grand Unified Theory of Character Motivations, but I think it bleeds a bit into an even bigger picture of how I generally analyze and evaluate fictional characters, which ended up making clear to me why I spend so much time groaning in frustration when something or other gets panned as being "OOC
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When interpreting events, real or fictional, people have a tendency to assume that because a series of events turned out a particular way, it was not only reasonably foreseeable but likely inevitable.
YES. My favourite example of this is HP: Pansy Parkinson. The assumption in fandom tends to be that her saying "let's give Harry up to Voldemort" was her choosing to fight FOR the dark side, when as far as I can tell there was LITERALLY NOT A SHRED OF EVIDENCE Harry could win. Like, we knew Voldemort would lose because it's a story and some people wanted to fight a losing battle because they were heroes, but from Pansy's pov it was literally "either Harry dies now, or he dies in an hour along with everyone in this school." WILL ALWAYS DEFEND.
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aw, poor Pansy. I feel like she gets a lot of the projection and distancing of people who want to convince themselves that THEY would OF COURSE know exactly where to draw the line and be a big damn hero and...no, most people probably wouldn't! (IMO people who are able to trivialize and distance from that kind of fear rather than acknowledge it in themselves are the ones who would make me most nervous under pressure.)
Also, I don't really think this was Pansy's intention, but in terms of group decision-making like that, someone really does have to be the person willing to sound like a dirty coward, because you need the baseline facts out on the table to make the best decision. I think that impulse to make some survival-oriented perspective taboo the way people seem to want to do is pretty dangerous.
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