Swatting at the Swarm, Part I: Adam's Hand and Galton's Ox

[peristaltor]

I have for several weeks now been contemplating subjects, as the phrase goes, way above my pay grade, specifically why today's economic woes might be far more severe than even a press known for glorying in maim and gore is willing to investigate. It's been difficult, to say the least. There is so much I simply don't know. Hey, don't believe me

Comments

[bleaknemesis]

Interesting that there might actually be some sanity in mob rule. Unfortunately here in teabagville democracy only works if everyone is a conservative. Any hint of a liberal influence immediately calls for intervention by a "benevolent" conservative leader to help guide the miscreants to a more rational capitalist, nationalistic, patriotic, God-fearing frame of mind. I would also like to ask if you have watched the BBC series Century of the Self that can be found on YouTube? It might contribute to the second part of your topic by tying in Public Relations to the economic "news" that the public is fed.

[peristaltor]

Ah, not just sanity, but insight. Demonstrable, replicable, mob rule insight. What a concept. No wonder it's discounted and ignored. It proves too painful for single brains to contemplate.

Your mention of teabaggery and Century of the Self (which I have not seen; watching YouTube for more than a few minutes proves uncomfortable) anticipates my next installments. I assume you're referring to the influence of Bernays, Freud's nephew, the man who coined the term Public Relations as an alternative to "propaganda." This is something Rushkoff covered in Life, Inc., and which is hinted at in the Smith quote and analysis I used from his book.

It looks like we really have, isolated from each other these many years, been reading the same books. {smiley emoticon insertion here}

[albionwood]

(backtracking via tags from your latest)

No one understands what causes this phenomenon.

I think Taleb might. If we as individuals are Fooled by Randomness, that same randomness will produce the "wisdom of crowds." Stochastic distribution with central tendency adequately explains both the inaccuracy of individuals and the accuracy of groups. This might be testable, because it should not work on distributions without central tendency - the kinds of things that produce Black Swans. Like, say, the financial system...

[peristaltor]

I can't remember anything in The Black Swan that suggests Taleb does know. He lists all the various fallacies of why we think we know, but does not address crowd wisdom, stochastic or not.

I'm not sure about why this distribution would explain the accuracy of groups, though. I dealt more with what sways groups in Parts II and III. Just a thought; one shouldn't have the central tendency you mention without some organizing force exerted on the crowd before the experiment, should one? Which brings up the follow-up question: What randomizes the crowd before the experiment and/or collective observations?

I personally think that Overton Window might be just one aspect of social self-organization inherent with people, but I'm just winging a guess here.