Comments | peristaltor: Suburbia Über Nada

peristaltor

Suburbia Über Nada

Aug 08, 2009 10:44

Jim Kunstler whipped out another gem in which he wrote:

For decades we measured the health of our economy (and therefore of our society) by the number of "housing starts" recorded month-to-month. For decades, this translated into the number of suburban tract houses being built in the asteroid belts of our towns and cities. When housing starts ( Read more... )

stuff we really should be taught, erections around us, just peaking!, from the c-realm, common tragedies, transportation, tango of cash

Comments 25

richie73 August 8 2009, 20:43:05 UTC

Ohh thanks for making me aware of this blog. I love his writing style.

fortyozspartan August 10 2009, 14:05:23 UTC

It gets old after awhile because he's such a pessimistic dick. He can be right though.

richie73 August 8 2009, 21:57:27 UTC

I like what he has to say too. I've been reading through previous entries since you posted this.

peristaltor August 9 2009, 02:35:10 UTC

The Geography of Nowhere articulated thoughts and impressions I've been having since I was a kid growing up in the 'burbs. He pulls no punches.

If you're a pod-person, his Kunstler Cast is pretty amusing, too.

ironphoenix August 8 2009, 22:45:32 UTC

It should be interesting: currently, I rent in the city, and drive out to a job in the pseudo-burb where most of the high-tech companies in town set up shop. WHen and where should I buy?

peristaltor August 9 2009, 02:40:14 UTC

WHen and where should I buy?

Perhaps the first question should be "why." This housing bubble started in '98. Bubbles take as long to deflate as they take to grow. (See Chapter 15 of The Crash Course for supporting reference.)

ironphoenix August 9 2009, 02:52:06 UTC

The short answer is, to build equity. Renting doesn't; paying down a mortgage does, even when the property's market value is shrinking. The endgame is that in n years, one would still be paying rent, but the mortgage is paid off instead. Being "upside down" matters if you try to liquidate the asset, but so long as you can keep up with the payments and don't actually realize the capital loss, it doesn't matter.

What I'm getting at is, there is an interesting optimization between buying now to start paying down the mortgage, and buying later to have a smaller starting mortgage because the market value has "adjusted". I should do some math around this, and work out some scenarios.

peristaltor August 9 2009, 03:04:27 UTC

I agree with the principal behind buying -- don't get me wrong. However, upside-down can be more than catastrophic if you lose a job or have to relocate. Which is where a great number of people find themselves right now.

There is a disconnect, though, with what people are getting in rent versus what a mortgage would cost. I'm shocked at what some crap-tastic apartment buildings charge. Better bargains (around here, at least) can be found renting whole houses, especially if you have decent roomies to cover the rent.

The Wife and I got lucky, buying in 2001. I see our house maintaining its value (relative to our mortgage left to be paid) simply because of; a) the houses in the neighborhood sell price recently, compared to b) the sell price of 'burb houses. It helps that we plan to die here, making liquidation kind of academic.

Thread 16

I try to read Kunstler every week vixter August 10 2009, 01:55:21 UTC

Some of the commenters are good and some are asses.

I was on our home owner's association board (not the kind that can enforce anything, I would never live in one of those) and someone once said that banks making construction loans on spec houses forced the builders to put up the maximum size house that was allowed.

We now owe less on our house than we paid for our Oregon house in '77.

Of course our current payment is now 2.5 times the property tax payment so paying it off isn't going to reduce our monthly payments that much.

Re: I try to read Kunstler every week peristaltor August 10 2009, 20:41:15 UTC

I've not bothered with his commenters. I should take a peek.

You're in California, I assume? That state is so screwed. Prop 13 has proven a disaster in just about every way.

Yes, I live in California vixter August 11 2009, 06:47:52 UTC

but I can pass for a Seattle-ite if I need to. I went to Tyee HS in Sea-Tac and Western Washington University. (And 2 other schools before I finally graduated) My brother and daughter live up there.

Prop 13 screwed? You ain't seen nothing yet. This giant over budget fiasco in California is going to dwarf the prop 13 problems. But I don't think Washington is going escape unscathed.

Re: Yes, I live in California peristaltor August 15 2009, 03:00:58 UTC

Wow. I just heard about the State's constitutional 2/3 up vote on any taxes. Talk about holding a state hostage to dogma.

Just. Wow. Good luck.

Re: Yes, I live in California vixter August 15 2009, 15:47:48 UTC

Well I do have a bug out place in SW Washington. My friend's farm. I've made myself so useful there that I am always welcome.

Unfortunately I cannot drive there on one tank of gas. It takes about 2.

I am not sure what is going to happen but I don't think the life we have in the US is going to stay this way much longer. California is more crowded and doesn't have enough water but every state has vulnerabilities.