Uncertainty

[pcjunkie]

First, I am amused to note that my previous entry confirmed the rule that on average, the number of comments is inversely proportional to the length of an entry. ;-)

I've been reading Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a successful securities trader. His book is about how people are terrible at understanding probability and the

Comments

Entry length

[mcmiller]

I think you are effectively illustrating your own point about humans not understanding probability. Short entries usually relate to one specific idea, and in the case of your livejournal, are more likely to contain a strong opinion with minimal justification rather than a longer essay that explores a topic.

If you state an opinion strongly, and with little background, you are far more likely to elicit a response from people who agree or disagree. When you explore an idea from multiple different angles, it provokes no strong thoughts or feelings at all.

[silverskytears]

This is probably a pointless comment, but we really don't know enough to determine whether things are deterministic or probabilistic. We'd have to know enough to run a few studies ;) For instance, if we knew what effect every human gene, and every situational/developmental issue had on an individual, we could try to predict their behavior exactly. If we failed, there is some randomness operating. If we succeeded, it may be that "effective probability" exists