How about this analysis
anonymous
November 8 2008, 00:20:28 UTC
Of the people who did not vote for Kerry/Gore, how many voted for Obama:
55%=6/11 of blacks,
22%=9.5/43 of latins,
10%=5/52 of all population, etc.
This looks to me like a more correct way to look at the numbers, and it does show that gain among blacks was higher than among other groups. It also shows that Obama's gain among blacks is very similar to Kennedy's gain among catholics.
Re: How about this analysispasha71November 8 2008, 00:33:36 UTC
It is a very good point, thank you.
But when we're talking about a group as a whole (be it blacks, Latinos, Catholics or all voters), is it 100% valid to focus only on a part of it (in case of blacks, only on 11% of them)?
Still, similarity of Obama's and Kennedy's numbers proves that blacks who switched to Obama are probably no more racist than Catholics who switched to Kennedy were religiously intolerant...
Well, we'll see how Obama will do in the office. But back to the point we discussed under this same article but written in Russian. Truly, I don't remember any prominent black-skinned politician coming from the Republicans. And among the Democrats there were ones who even ran for the Presidential office in previous years. Senator Jesse Jackson, for example. I'd also like to ask you a question if you know any more or less prominent Hispanic/Latino politician in the USA now? Do the Hispanics have the chance to have the President from among them in the decade to come. :-)
Well, Colin Powell is a Republican. And so is Condoleezza Rice. Both were considered viable candidates, but neither one chose to run for office. I think Powell would have had a good chance of being elected, while Rice's ties with Bush would have probably damaged her chances a great deal.
As to Hispanics... Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico, is half-Latino. He was one of the Democratic contenders this year, but withdrew when it became obvious that Obama and Hillary were the only two realistic candidates. He might have more success in the future, yes.
Well, technically, GWB is still the President. :-)
There are also some prominent black conservative and libertarian columnists (Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams, Larry Elder, Eric Rush etc), but I don't know if any of them would actually run for office... On a second thought, I might be wrong -- Alan Keyes did run for Senate in 2004, and lost to... Obama. :-) This year, though, he switched his allegiance from Republican Party to Conservative, I think.
Comments 8
Saw your comment on 538. Nice bit of work here, thank you for sharing it and proving a rather interesting point.
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55%=6/11 of blacks,
22%=9.5/43 of latins,
10%=5/52 of all population, etc.
This looks to me like a more correct way to look at the numbers, and it does show that gain among blacks was higher than among other groups. It also shows that Obama's gain among blacks is very similar to Kennedy's gain among catholics.
Reply
But when we're talking about a group as a whole (be it blacks, Latinos, Catholics or all voters), is it 100% valid to focus only on a part of it (in case of blacks, only on 11% of them)?
Still, similarity of Obama's and Kennedy's numbers proves that blacks who switched to Obama are probably no more racist than Catholics who switched to Kennedy were religiously intolerant...
Reply
But back to the point we discussed under this same article but written in Russian.
Truly, I don't remember any prominent black-skinned politician coming from the Republicans. And among the Democrats there were ones who even ran for the Presidential office in previous years. Senator Jesse Jackson, for example.
I'd also like to ask you a question if you know any more or less prominent Hispanic/Latino politician in the USA now? Do the Hispanics have the chance to have the President from among them in the decade to come. :-)
Reply
As to Hispanics... Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico, is half-Latino. He was one of the Democratic contenders this year, but withdrew when it became obvious that Obama and Hillary were the only two realistic candidates. He might have more success in the future, yes.
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There are also some prominent black conservative and libertarian columnists (Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams, Larry Elder, Eric Rush etc), but I don't know if any of them would actually run for office... On a second thought, I might be wrong -- Alan Keyes did run for Senate in 2004, and lost to... Obama. :-) This year, though, he switched his allegiance from Republican Party to Conservative, I think.
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