Obama...

[orangebeaver]

I've just been looking over a map of the electoral college and some polls, after I keep hearing people talk about Obama being "a sure thing" and "certain to be the next president." While this SHOULD be true, with 4 dollar gasoline, the mortgage crisis and two wars going on that are sucking money into a vortex never to return

Comments

[gonzo21]

People really think he's a sure thing? That surprises me. As far as I'm concerned the Democratic party have managed to nominate the only candidate who has a very realistic chance of losing.

At this stage I would not bet against McCain.

[orangebeaver]

That's how I keep hearing Obama described, which is sort of understandable considering the state of the country, but I suspect those people are in the cocoon of a blue state. I mean, Kerry won Pennsylvania (blue state?) by a couple of points, but what will the effect of Obama's race and perceived liberlism have on a place like that? Sure, the Democrats "could" pick up someplace like Colorado, but if they lose Pennsylvania (or Ohio--which voted twice for Bush, although with a Republican state machine running the show, unlike now) we're screwed. Florida is out of play because Obama is way behind.

[gonzo21]

I think Obama will mobilise republican voters as they have never been mobilised before. Vast swathes who have never been bothered voting before will, I think, go to the trouble of voting ~against~ him. While much of the democratic party still feels so angry about the nomination contest, they might well stay home in protest. It could be a really quite significant defeat for Obama.

[orangebeaver]

If it's going to be a rout, it would be a McCain rout. If the Democrats can't win this election, after the last 8 years of President Disaster, they should disband.

[tediousandbrief]

I used to think that McCain and Huckabee were the two best candidates that the Republicans could put against the Democrats; however, since seeing McCain the evening of Obama's getting the nomination, I think he might not be that tough.

I think a large part of what will matter will be his VP choice. If he pisses off Hillary's people, even though they're not coming toward him, my guess is he'll lose them.

Looking at the electoral math, I think that an Obama/Clinton clean up. But we'll see who he picks.

[orangebeaver]

I don't think putting Hillary on the ticket does anything, (but is a neutral but rather cynical move). How could he win in a rout? I think that's impossible. If Obama won it would be by the tiniest of margins. He would literally squeak by by one or two points. Part of this problem is that no matter what the Republican candidate does, (President Disaster is a good model) it doesn't seem to move any red states to vote the other way. Like in Indiana. McCain will win there no matter what. McCain could flash the "n" word. Indiana goes for McCain. Tennessee, etc. The only hope is that Obama picks up somewhere like Virginia and holds on to everything Kerry or Gore won.

[tediousandbrief]

Indiana is actually just leaning towards McCain. I think it's a potential battle ground state.

I think alot of "red" states are in play this year. Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Ohio, maybe even Indiana.

[orangebeaver]

It would be simply incredible if Obama won Georgia or South Carolina. I think it's more likely that he wins Iowa and loses all the rest of those. But, I hope I'm wrong.

[rondav]

Aaahhh!!!!
Don't talk like thaat! :'(
Whaatever do we dooo?!

[orangebeaver]

Vote, contribute, volunteer, agitate!

[rondav]

Ohh.
Okay. :)

[anonymous]

Oh, you're all frowny again. I guess that Obama is good and McCain is evil. Obama will save us! Yaaaah!

[orangebeaver]

My nemesis is back! I missed you. A little...

[anonymous]

LOL it isn't the same person. I was the anonymous earlier. That's someone else.

[igraine120]

Really interesting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/opinion/15rich.html?em&ex=1213675200&en=a88f794b8a0b3058&ei=5087%0A