You guys, Nate Silver is told to fuck off by some dickhead! :(

Nate Silver took it in stride though. You stay classy, John Ziegler!

An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby "Push Poll"
I had the chance this afternoon to speak with John Ziegler, a documentary filmmaker and former radio talk show host who built the website HowObamaGotElected.com and is promoting a forthcoming documentary of the same name.

Ziegler was responsible for commissioning a Zogby International survey ( Read more... )

( Read more... )

Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Prop 8 Myths

Writes Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee:

Last week, however, 10 percent of voters were African American while 18 percent were Latino, and applying exit poll data to that extra turnout reveals that the pro-Obama surge among those two groups gave Proposition 8 an extra 500,000-plus votes, slightly more ( Read more... )

Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama

( Read more... )

Monday, November 10, 2008
Franken's Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long -- or Short

Votes counted in Minnesota's senate race: 2,833,089

Votes separating Norm Coleman and Al Franken: 221

Determining a candidate's odds of winning a recount is a function of three parameters. The first parameter is the margin separating the leading and trailing ( Read more... )

So... Which Pollsters Live, Which Will Be Killed?


( Read more... )

FiveThirtyEight.com's Final Election Projection!

It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, ( Read more... )

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has been getting a bit testy lately, which I suspect is reflective of the types of e-mails he's been receiving recently.

Yesterday, he took the time to ease Obama supporters' fears surrounding Pennsylvania:

( On Pennsylvania: )

So what's the state of the race today, with only 9 days of campaigning to go?

( Find out! )