Polling suggests Republicans could take back the House

[chibirhm]

Under the heading, "Republicans not in a position to retake the House (yet)," Chris Bowers estimates that the Democrats have a 41.2%-37.7% lead in recent generic House polling. Bowers writes, "Democrats are, after all, still winning

Comments

[dwer]

we'll see. By the time we get to the election, the economy should be doing much better, unemployment will be down, the health reform bill will be passed, etc. I don't think that any predicative polls can be taken at face value anymore.

That being said, fivethirtyeight.com is probably the best analysis site out there.

[box_in_the_box]

Yeah, the Democrats should be seeing this as a sign that they need to get their shit together, to be sure, but this is so far out from the elections that, if we'd judged the outcome of the 2008 presidential election this far in advance, then Hillary Clinton would have been a lock to run against Rudy Giuliani.

[spleener]

Yeah, while there is the general 'non-incumbent wins mid-term' trend, overall trying to predict how the 2010 election is going to go now is kind of like trying to predict who's going to win the 2010 world series.

[glo_unit]

I would just like to say it's nice to see Nate Silver cover something he really knows.

[ladypeyton]

Actually it's not Nate. It's one of the other contributors to fivethirtyeight.

[flowerings]

I'm not going to start freaking out about the 2010 Mid-terms until November 8, 2010.

[foofighter0234]

I doubt it.

[foofighter0234]

Nice icon.

[sunoftheskye]

Kill me. :(