Can Donald Trump really win the White House?

[sugartitty]

Comments

[sentinelsoul]

It's definitely improbable, but not impossible-- much like this election in general.

It's terrifying to think about and actually consider happening. It's a bit insidious, too-- I've not seen one Trump sign anywhere in my county, but my county also went heavy for Trump in the primary. People won't publicly say they support him, but they'll vote for him, and it's hard to estimate how many votes he'll actually get if he wins the nomination.

[amyura]

The top map is the one I tend to use when I'm handicapping the race. I have a state-by-state list in my desk that's almost that exact breakdown. It's nice that the pundits feel that NC now leans Dem, but I don't share their confidence. Ditto for Florida and Ohio.

And on what planet are Arizona and Georgia NOT safe Republican territory? The land of Jan Brewer and Joe Arpaio and John McCain, and lots of old white retirees? Or for that matter, Indiana, which might easily be the most socially conservative state in the country? (Please note I am NOT saying there are no liberals in those states, just that there aren't enough of them to ever win the state.)

[jeliza]

I don't know what they are thinking in Georgia, but I am assuming they are thinking the Latinx voter turnout will be the tipping factor in Arizona.

[mastadge]

Yes, he can. He's exactly the type of person who wins elections. :(

[invisiblegirlx]

He could, but it's not likely. He doesn't have enough support from minority voters or women (at the moment) to take him over the top, but who knows?

[norjak]

I sure wouldn't put it past Trump, especially in this high-stakes election. I thought he was toast after his remarks about John McCain last July. As I've since learned, Trump thrives best when he actively provokes controversy. I am curious to see how Trump's new strategist, Manafort, will spin the showman's repressed inner-president during the general election. Trump frequently comments on how he's a nice guy...he may net just enough suckers' votes to land the role of Commander in Chief™. I shudder to think...