Has Neil Gaiman outsold Heinlein and Herbert?

[nwhyte]

Over on Twitter, Neil Gaiman says:

The idea that I've outsold Robert Heinlein and Frank Herbert just broke my brain. (Also I don’t believe it.) http://thewertzone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/the-updated-sff-all-time-sales-list.html/a>
- Neil Gaiman (@neilhimself) March 14, 2015
The page he links to puts him at #17 for all time, with 40+ million sales;

Comments

[xiphias]

The population of the United States is now twice what it was when Heinlein started publishing, and the population growth is higher elsewhere. Having more than twice as many potential readers has got to give Gaiman an edge, too.

[atreic]

I'm a bit skeptical about using librarything figures - I haven't catalogued all my books, but I do catalogue anything I read. It seems likely that other people do similar things? Or that younger readers are more likely to use librarything, and are more likely to read more modern authors? I know you address this point a bit, but I think it's a bigger effect than you're thinking...

[I still think Gaiman probably _has_ outsold the others, just not that it's as clear cut as you're making it!]

Gaiman is smart

[orangemike]

He knows better than to trust information derived from such non-reliable sources, whose sampling biases are so obvious as not to need outlining, except to people who think science fiction and fantasy were invented by the Internet.

Re: Gaiman is smart

[nwhyte]

Gosh, someone got out of bed on the wrong side!