European ballot

[nickbarnes]

A poll card comes through the door, along with a smattering of xenophobic rants from UKIP. It seems there is a european election coming up. My region (the South East) elects 10 MEPs, using the D'Hondt method of proportional representation. But who to vote for? Well, the BBC has this rather useless list. The European Parliament information

Comments

[nwhyte]

I ran the numbers on the swings needed to change the vote in the Euro-constituencies last September. If you want your vote to have an impact in South East England, the Greens are a pretty good bet. They missed winning a second seat by 2.2% last time; on the other hand, their currently held seat is vulnerable if they lose 4.3% of the vote share (down to 7.3% from 11.6%).

The 2009 result overall in the South East was 4 Cons, 2 UKIP, 2 LD, 1 Green, 1 Lab. (The Lib Dems' second seat in South East is their most vulnerable in the UK; their first seat is their safest in the UK, though that is not saying much.)

Just from the shape of the national polls, I'd expect the Tories and Lib Dems to lose half their seats, and Labour and UKIP to pick up at least one each. The last one is then, on my count, between a fourth UKIP, a third Labour and a second Green.