Палестину признали, признаем и Хамастан.

[nedosionist]

ООН признало Палестину государством-наблюдателем. Это, несомненно, крупное дипломатическое поражение Израиля. Что можно по этому поводу сделать? Наиболее уместным и своевременным ответом выглядит признание Хамастана - одностороннее признание независимости Хамастана-Газы от ПА, предложенное мной два года назад после Литого Свинца и Мармары.

Comments

Признание ХАМАСа - удар по независимости Палестины.

[livejournal]

User mikhailosherov referenced to your post from Признание ХАМАСа - удар по независимости Палестины. saying: [...] Нашел нетривиальное мнение на просторах ЖЖ: Палестину признали, признаем и Хамастан. [...]

Re: Признание ХАМАСа - удар по независимости Палестины.

[nedosionist]

Я однако не считаю предлаемое ударом по незaвисимости Палестины. Удар - по целостности, по дипломатическому статусу, по легитимности, - но не по независимости как таковой. Напротив, будучи независимой от ПА, Палестина-Газа достигает бОльшей независимости.

[brotherinlaw]

UN recognition of PA: I would lean to the insignificance camp, 2nd in your list. (However, I realize that optimism easily slips from praisefulness of the Almighty to something that Rambam/Job call a mockery of Him.)
Idea of recognition of Hamas "state": the advantages you cite are clear, but IMHO concomitant disadvantages outweigh.

[nedosionist]

insignificance: I don't want to sound apocalyptic, since I'd actually prefer that you're right in that. ;)

But - in my view that's very unlikely. It is not the results of this vote itself matter, it's that the importance of such vote itself, and that it opens potential floodgates of many other votes. The vote as it was cemented pan-European consensus in favor of Palestine, with Israel deserted even by its usual allies. At the same time it trivialized future votes of acceptance of Palestine to many other orgs. That means over time slowly (at best) but steadily increasing Israeli diplomatic isolation. It may end up being diplomatic death of thousand cuts.

recognition ... disadvantages outweigh: I'd be curious which of the possible disadvantages are you most concerned about? Reunification of Palestine and growing international acceptance of Hamas - in my view are likely to happen under the current policies anyway, but without aforementioned benefits to Israel.

[brotherinlaw]

Europeans' abstention votes are (for a change) not necessarily anti-Israeli, they may have a glib aim of encouraging Abbas for not being Hamas. Still your misgivings may well prove justified, it's rather a matter of perception.

Disadvantages. First, an Israeli recognition would have no standing in the international law: Hamas, as far as I remember, never asked anyone for such a recognition (it claims a Palestinian state including the West bank as well as Tel-Aviv, Haifa etc.). So it would be a recognition of a state that only exists in the mind of the recognizer. Second, it would be in conflict with the view of Hamas as a terrorist organization and would be a gratuitous embarrassment to US. Third, the conflict cited would be a mock conflict, as everyone knows the true Israeli (and US) view of Hamas; and the whole enterprise would be considered a mockery and, still worse, an attempted mockery.

terrorist Hamas

[nedosionist]

To my eye, you're citing not disadvantages, but difficulties - there's no direct harm in any of them.

American view of Hamas and other groups in the neighborhood would generally follow Israeli position (and we can be forewarned by Israelis). But the beauty of the proposed approach is that such recognition have no bearing on whether to view Hamas as a terrorist organization; I'm NOT proposing recognition of Gaza statehood. (However even if it were, the difference would be merely between a terrorist organization that took over a territory, and a state sponsor of terrorism with an external arm; or as quasi-independent Gaza and terrorist Hamas etc.)

With that said, however, I generally take a view that a terrorist organization is a misnomer, it don't exist as such . Rather, political organization may use terrorist means at some stage. See earlier here; the evolution of Hamas in Gaza in the last 3 yrs confirm the point I was making in that comment.

[brotherinlaw]

I can confess that years ago I used to privately entertain the idea of recognition of PA as a state. That would've allowed us to call the war war, POWs POWs, to deal with terrorists as with enemy subversives in noncombatant's disguise, etc. etc. But something always stood in the way of that idea (besides the small nuisance of my non-being the Israeli dictator:). You cannot recognize something that does not exist for most practical purposes and doesn't meet any legal definition, something you have to define yourself (first of all its boundaries) before your act of recognition. So I had to desist, yiddishe-kop as the idea might've been.

[nedosionist]

And on the issue of defined boundaries Hamastan has already a clear advantage over PA as a whole. And yet, a status short of statehood would be appropriate for the time being.

Как повлияет Защитный край на сдерживание Хамаса?

[livejournal]

User varana referenced to your post from Как повлияет Защитный край на сдерживание Хамаса? saying: [...] Хамас вошел в объединенное палестинское правительство, о стратегический опасности чего я писал [...]