The shape of the 2016 Presidential Election, and predictions for next Tuesday

[maxomai]

This is shaping up to be a Clinton v. Trump election, despite the best efforts of the GOP establishment, on the one hand, to find a common candidate such as Marco Rubio, and the progressive and Millennial wings of the Democratic Party, on the other, to keep the Sanders revolution going

Comments

[heron61]

I wouldn't count Rubio out yet - he beats Trump in most 2-person contests, and I'm fairly certain the Republican National Committee will soon be promising all the other candidates all manner of things if they drop out soon. Of course, it's also not clear that Cruz cares, and the longer he stays in the more likely Trump is to win. Because he's so deeply unlikable, I'd not mind if Cruz got the nomination, but unless Rubio self-destructs, the odds of that don't seem high.

I'm honestly not worried about a Clinton Trump race, since it's fairly easy to make Trump look like a fool to people who aren't extremely far on the right, and it's not like non-white people will be voting for him. If it's Clinton Trump, then Clinton will be able to make him look impressively terribly fairly easily.

OTOH, a Clinton Rubio matchup scares me, since despite holding deeply scary views, Rubio manages to come across as charismatic and reasonable.

[maxomai]

I agree with most of your points. FWIW I haven't counted out Rubio completely, but one must acknowledge that he has a very hard road ahead if he wants to be the nominee --- at this point Trump looks all but bulletproof. OTOH I wouldn't count out Trump's minority appeal either. The appeal of a candidate who "speaks his mind" transcends cultural divides.