Big General Election Prediction
Long time no post, so here are my predictions for tomorrow night (well, let's be realistic: Friday afternoon):
- 6% national swing to the Tories, leaving them with 315 seats;
- Labour down a fair bit, finishing on 230 seats;
- Lib Dems down on what they expected, with around 70.
Much as I don't particularly like the idea of this result, I think it means a few things:
- Cameron will claim a mandate from the people and will set himself up as leader of a minority Govt. He won't try to do a formal deal with any party, relying instead on key votes from Unionists, and there will be a major media push to install him quickly even though Parliament is technically hung.
- Brown will survive until Saturday, at which point he resigns and Harriot takes over. Labour contest will obviously last months, and on the basis that the Tory Govt. will be extremely weak and likely to get a short honeymoon with the electorate, David Milliband will be installed as leader before the emergency budget.
- The Lib Dem wish for voting reform will not come to pass, and this election will seem like a bit of a wasted opportunity in a few weeks' time. However, with Labour, they will inflict some bruising defeats on the Tory Govt.
Feel free to add your own predictions below. FWIW, I also think:
- the finishing line for the Tories is 300 seats; they will claim victory and the right to form a Government at any point above that;
- any number of seats above 100 for the Lib Dems is a win; anything below 60 a crushing defeat;
- anything over 240 for Labour and Brown might be able to keep his job, for now at least - particularly if an alliance with the Lib Dems looks on the cards;
- at this point, a weak Tory Govt. might be about the worst thing this country could get, but it may also be the end of the Tories: mark Eddie George's comment that the next administration may find itself out of power again quickly and for a long time.