Iowa: Toldja So
So, lo, it has come to pass, as I've been saying it would: the evangelical Christians showed up in the Republican caucuses as they have every election since 1980, and raised up one of their own over the Mormon. I would pity Romney for their bigotry, save that he is a marvelous bigot his own self. His "there can be no freedom without religion" speech deserves to be his political epitaph.
Giuliani went down in flames a little earlier than I thought he would. He's still hoping displaced New Yorkers in Florida will save his adulterous ass, but he's mistaken. The shenanigans during his last divorce over who would live in the Mayor's Mansion - his wife, his mistress, or both - have a resonance with people who were mortified by Bill Clinton's misbehavior in the White House. Rudy has zipper trouble, and all of us - presumably including his third wife, who got a paid police detail to walk her dog and drive her relatives to the store while she was still "only" his official mistress - know it.
And let it be true that a majority of us are disgusted by Guiliani's continual roll in the bloody shirt of 9/11. I'm still hoping that he gets indicted for his fishy contracts and conflicts of interest regarding his "security company" before this new year gets too old. Finally, what level of insanity among pundits and pollsters lets them imagine that a pro-choice, pro-gay, thrice-married fornicator is going to get the votes of the social conservatives who totally dominate Republican primaries?
So it's the charming Mr. Huckabee for now, no matter what happens in New Hampshire next week. Affable, friendly-faced Huckabee, whose economic policy is lifted from the Scientologist's "FairTax" proposal and would, in one stroke of the pen, institute the most regressive tax policy the world has ever known and turn the U.S. into a black market economy on the instant. Huckabee, who doesn't believe in evolution. Huckabee, who's fibbing about the funny business that turned a rapist loose to rape and kill two more women. Huckabee, who called out the state troopers in Arkansas to stop Governor Jim Guy Tucker from rescinding his resignation. Huckabee, with zero foreign policy experience even in Congress. Yes, indeedy, that's the man we want to lead us into the 21st Century.
They may not know it yet, but Romney's out. Giuliani's out. If Huckabee goes down, McCain steps up, no matter what Pouty-Boy Gingrich thinks about his own chances to get the nod in a last-minute "rescue the party" play at the convention this summer.
Moving right along to the Dems. The weather and the Oprah Factor diddled HRC out of the women's votes she otherwise would have had, and which she was counting on to keep her once-commanding lead. Little old ladies do not come out when it's that cold and snowy and dark; college students and twenty-somethings do. Obama's ascendancy is part of a youth movement which has seduced even the pundits of CNN & MSNBC into marveling on Caucus Night at all the "young faces behind Obama; and behind Hillary, everyone just looks old." Madeleine Albright was singled out as an example of the "old" folks who stand with Clinton. Gee, thanks.
Obama's caucus speech is being marveled at as a masterpiece of lyrical healing; call him Orpheus. What I marvel at is that both Biden and Richardson threw Obama their supporters for the second round of caucusing. Kucinich did too, but that was to be expected. What surprised me was that Hillary's people hadn't cut their own deal, and that Richardson was willing to drive a stake through the heart of his chance to be HRC's VP. As a former Clintonite, the lack of loyalty is unexpected. I rue this a bit; though I think Senator Jim Webb (VA) would be her best VP candidate, Richardson would have been quite a draw in the West and in the Hispanic community, without setting off most of the racist & immigration alarm bells that imperil any Hispanic candidate. And what's this with Biden? Is there bad blood between him and Hillary, that would cause him to knife his Senate colleague this way?
No, there will not be a Clinton-Obama ticket, nor will there be an Obama-Clinton ticket. Aside from the egos involved, they will spend the next five weeks brutally tearing one another down, and there's no recovery from that.
Other than the kiddy boost Obama got from the inclement weather, which kept voters over forty snug at home, the Iowa Caucus essentially would have been a three-way tie. Although it's what, something less than one percent of the national electorate? who turns out for Iowa's arcane ritual, a win there means everything in terms of getting the press to anoint and condemn. Hillary's being stoned with big rocks today, but I'm not sure that hurts her. A bit of an underdog position forces both her campaign and the press to stop talking about her "inevitability," which puts voters off. Forcing Obama into the "this could really happen" limelight will highlight his gaps in experience.
Edwards? I tell you, I have no clue there. I like him. I believe him more than I do her about fighting for the commoners versus the corporations. Hillary sold us out the last time to the insurance companies, and I'm certain she'll do the same this time, too. Yet I count on her to be rock-solid on abortion rights, where I do not trust Obama's "Call Me Mister Compromise" attitude much. There should be no compromise over the basic human rights of America's female citizenry.
Would Edwards take a veep spot? No, he's been there, done that, and deserves the top of the ticket. Would Edwards-Obama be possible? Well, it would be good, but possible? No, I don't think so. First off, right now, Obama's atop that particular heap. New Hampshire and South Carolina will not be dispositive; we need to see the Twenty-Two State Tuesday results on February 5. Second, Obama's said he's not running for veep - something any sensible candidate should say - but apparently there's some personal and family rumblings that if he can't be the Big Dog, Right Now, nothing else will do. Not a veep spot, not a later run. More than a little arrogant coming from a youngster with only two years in Congress, and that only because two opponents in a row imploded with sex scandals. Obama got to the Senate via two strokes of luck, not the overwhelming love of Illinoisians. Lightning struck twice to his benefit, and after Iowa, he has the hubris to believe it will keep happening.
Will Obama's pretty face and pretty story be enough on February 5? Or will this be a dogfight between HRC and Edwards, the two heaviest resumés, the Corporatist v. the Populist? What happens in South Carolina January 29? How will Edwards' almost-home-state advantage play against Obama's favorite-son status with blacks nationwide, now that they know he can win? Watch Hillary's black support drain away, now that the older generation knows that they're not necessarily wasting their vote on a man who may have trouble winning white states. When it comes to South Carolina, will Hillary be an also-ran? If so, combined with Iowa's statistical tie for second, how much will that hurt her on Super Duper Tuesday?
A final note: Aside from counting rules so Byzantine as to be meaningless regarding revealing true voter preferences in the small quantities at stake, Iowa does not permit military personnel who are away from home to participate in the caucuses.. There's no absentee voting, not for them, not for disabled or elderly voters who can't appear in person either. Clinton should have used this as a reason to refuse to participate in Iowa at all, saving some campaign cash and preserving the appearance of being a front-runner. When you come in as the winner, you can't win; being at the top of the tally just gets you a ho-hum. Iowa didn't offer her anything she didn't already have. She should have concentrated on New Hampshire and earned points for loyalty to the troops by turning her nose up at Iowa's self-important rites. This campaign note missed the boat.
Giuliani went down in flames a little earlier than I thought he would. He's still hoping displaced New Yorkers in Florida will save his adulterous ass, but he's mistaken. The shenanigans during his last divorce over who would live in the Mayor's Mansion - his wife, his mistress, or both - have a resonance with people who were mortified by Bill Clinton's misbehavior in the White House. Rudy has zipper trouble, and all of us - presumably including his third wife, who got a paid police detail to walk her dog and drive her relatives to the store while she was still "only" his official mistress - know it.
And let it be true that a majority of us are disgusted by Guiliani's continual roll in the bloody shirt of 9/11. I'm still hoping that he gets indicted for his fishy contracts and conflicts of interest regarding his "security company" before this new year gets too old. Finally, what level of insanity among pundits and pollsters lets them imagine that a pro-choice, pro-gay, thrice-married fornicator is going to get the votes of the social conservatives who totally dominate Republican primaries?
So it's the charming Mr. Huckabee for now, no matter what happens in New Hampshire next week. Affable, friendly-faced Huckabee, whose economic policy is lifted from the Scientologist's "FairTax" proposal and would, in one stroke of the pen, institute the most regressive tax policy the world has ever known and turn the U.S. into a black market economy on the instant. Huckabee, who doesn't believe in evolution. Huckabee, who's fibbing about the funny business that turned a rapist loose to rape and kill two more women. Huckabee, who called out the state troopers in Arkansas to stop Governor Jim Guy Tucker from rescinding his resignation. Huckabee, with zero foreign policy experience even in Congress. Yes, indeedy, that's the man we want to lead us into the 21st Century.
They may not know it yet, but Romney's out. Giuliani's out. If Huckabee goes down, McCain steps up, no matter what Pouty-Boy Gingrich thinks about his own chances to get the nod in a last-minute "rescue the party" play at the convention this summer.
Moving right along to the Dems. The weather and the Oprah Factor diddled HRC out of the women's votes she otherwise would have had, and which she was counting on to keep her once-commanding lead. Little old ladies do not come out when it's that cold and snowy and dark; college students and twenty-somethings do. Obama's ascendancy is part of a youth movement which has seduced even the pundits of CNN & MSNBC into marveling on Caucus Night at all the "young faces behind Obama; and behind Hillary, everyone just looks old." Madeleine Albright was singled out as an example of the "old" folks who stand with Clinton. Gee, thanks.
Obama's caucus speech is being marveled at as a masterpiece of lyrical healing; call him Orpheus. What I marvel at is that both Biden and Richardson threw Obama their supporters for the second round of caucusing. Kucinich did too, but that was to be expected. What surprised me was that Hillary's people hadn't cut their own deal, and that Richardson was willing to drive a stake through the heart of his chance to be HRC's VP. As a former Clintonite, the lack of loyalty is unexpected. I rue this a bit; though I think Senator Jim Webb (VA) would be her best VP candidate, Richardson would have been quite a draw in the West and in the Hispanic community, without setting off most of the racist & immigration alarm bells that imperil any Hispanic candidate. And what's this with Biden? Is there bad blood between him and Hillary, that would cause him to knife his Senate colleague this way?
No, there will not be a Clinton-Obama ticket, nor will there be an Obama-Clinton ticket. Aside from the egos involved, they will spend the next five weeks brutally tearing one another down, and there's no recovery from that.
Other than the kiddy boost Obama got from the inclement weather, which kept voters over forty snug at home, the Iowa Caucus essentially would have been a three-way tie. Although it's what, something less than one percent of the national electorate? who turns out for Iowa's arcane ritual, a win there means everything in terms of getting the press to anoint and condemn. Hillary's being stoned with big rocks today, but I'm not sure that hurts her. A bit of an underdog position forces both her campaign and the press to stop talking about her "inevitability," which puts voters off. Forcing Obama into the "this could really happen" limelight will highlight his gaps in experience.
Edwards? I tell you, I have no clue there. I like him. I believe him more than I do her about fighting for the commoners versus the corporations. Hillary sold us out the last time to the insurance companies, and I'm certain she'll do the same this time, too. Yet I count on her to be rock-solid on abortion rights, where I do not trust Obama's "Call Me Mister Compromise" attitude much. There should be no compromise over the basic human rights of America's female citizenry.
Would Edwards take a veep spot? No, he's been there, done that, and deserves the top of the ticket. Would Edwards-Obama be possible? Well, it would be good, but possible? No, I don't think so. First off, right now, Obama's atop that particular heap. New Hampshire and South Carolina will not be dispositive; we need to see the Twenty-Two State Tuesday results on February 5. Second, Obama's said he's not running for veep - something any sensible candidate should say - but apparently there's some personal and family rumblings that if he can't be the Big Dog, Right Now, nothing else will do. Not a veep spot, not a later run. More than a little arrogant coming from a youngster with only two years in Congress, and that only because two opponents in a row imploded with sex scandals. Obama got to the Senate via two strokes of luck, not the overwhelming love of Illinoisians. Lightning struck twice to his benefit, and after Iowa, he has the hubris to believe it will keep happening.
Will Obama's pretty face and pretty story be enough on February 5? Or will this be a dogfight between HRC and Edwards, the two heaviest resumés, the Corporatist v. the Populist? What happens in South Carolina January 29? How will Edwards' almost-home-state advantage play against Obama's favorite-son status with blacks nationwide, now that they know he can win? Watch Hillary's black support drain away, now that the older generation knows that they're not necessarily wasting their vote on a man who may have trouble winning white states. When it comes to South Carolina, will Hillary be an also-ran? If so, combined with Iowa's statistical tie for second, how much will that hurt her on Super Duper Tuesday?
A final note: Aside from counting rules so Byzantine as to be meaningless regarding revealing true voter preferences in the small quantities at stake, Iowa does not permit military personnel who are away from home to participate in the caucuses.. There's no absentee voting, not for them, not for disabled or elderly voters who can't appear in person either. Clinton should have used this as a reason to refuse to participate in Iowa at all, saving some campaign cash and preserving the appearance of being a front-runner. When you come in as the winner, you can't win; being at the top of the tally just gets you a ho-hum. Iowa didn't offer her anything she didn't already have. She should have concentrated on New Hampshire and earned points for loyalty to the troops by turning her nose up at Iowa's self-important rites. This campaign note missed the boat.