Oil prices and pressures

Sep 04, 2008 17:50

(From a conversation with
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energy, oil, economics

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Comments 20

sir_dave September 5 2008, 02:16:17 UTC
Here's the bit I don't understand.

Is the price of oil settled by bidding, or is it sold at a price chosen by the seller?

If the price is settled by bidding, how does one alter the price? By controlling the level of supply (when you can, which OPEC has effectively been able to do) or by bidding (which is our job).

So, show me how the chosen level of supply has been manipulated, and then the whole thing is self-evident.

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level_head September 5 2008, 03:54:01 UTC
Is the price of oil settled by bidding, or is it sold at a price chosen by the seller?

The latter. However, the market is not completely inflexible -- but the strategy is to get the best overall return. Since the people in control of OPEC are not, generally, elected officials (or in the case of Hugo Chavez, has removed that pesky "reelection" thingy) they can plan for the long term.

This means that a drop now, to keep prices higher on average for years, makes sense to them. However, their own financial situations make them weaker -- and our resolve makes us stronger.

What's confusing is that "bidding" takes place in the oil futures market -- but this is to establish the wager of what a future price is going to be, typically two or three months out ( ... )

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level_head September 5 2008, 03:59:56 UTC
The supply is adjusted, generally, as a fig leaf for the price setting. But OPEC sets both price AND supply -- by establishing quotas for the producing countries.

The price, generally, is effective (with small adjustments) for even countries not part of OPEC; in our case, our largest oil imports are not from the Middle East, they are from Canada and Mexico.

When pressures -- such as what we are creating! -- get bad, some of the OPEC countries as well as non-OPEC go "off the reservation" -- and then the market starts behaving as the modelers would expect, in a more liquid and true supply and demand style.

While that is not true at the moment, it is MUCH closer than it was two months ago -- and the credit goes to President Bush, backed by the American people.

Let's see if Congress will swing at this pitch; it SHOULD be easy to knock out of the park. It WOULD be, but only for those who have America's best interests at heart.

Of course, our actions lower your price as well.

===|==============/ Level Head

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sir_dave September 5 2008, 04:02:48 UTC
Thank you; the press simplifies that considerably. I've never had cause to look into it deeper.

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anonymous September 5 2008, 16:51:06 UTC
But they've dropped about $40 so far -- for what you must say is no reason at all.

Ees Party Line, Comrades.

Oh, and our media, right this moment, is predicting that oil will hit $150 again in soon:

Ees Party Line, Comrades.

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testing4l September 5 2008, 19:44:00 UTC
(A vote today would be a clear win for McCain -- and the magnitude of the Hillary effect is impressive to me.)

Not according to electoral-vote.com.

Now, you might say that the Bush announcement and the Palin announcement have had absolutely no effect at all on oil prices.

The Bush one, I'll agree with, but Palin? I don't think OPEC lives in fear of *any* vice president being elected, especially one who has done so little on the national or international stage.

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level_head September 5 2008, 20:04:01 UTC
I don't think OPEC lives in fear of *any* vice president being elected, especially one who has done so little on the national or international stage.

She has had more personal impact upon the oil industry than any other person in the United States.

===|==============/ Level Head

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level_head September 5 2008, 20:07:46 UTC
But there's a secondary effect here. Pre-Palin, it was widely thought that Obama would win. Post-Palin, it is becoming increasingly likely that McCain/Palin will win.

And Palin's policies, while extremely tough on oil companies, ARE for US self-sufficiency. And she has the expertise to make it happen -- moreso than John McCain.

So it's the change in odds with the Palin announcement that gives it the OPEC effect.

===|==============/ Level Head

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testing4l September 6 2008, 00:07:26 UTC
I notice your change from "A vote today would be a clear win for McCain" to "It is becoming increasingly likely that McCain/Palin will win". I think you're confusing what you want to happen with what's actually happening here, now, back on Earth.

Your statement is right if and only if OPEC feels the same way about McCain/Palin as you do. The only logical response on their end is to wait-and-see. It not only nets them more money in the end (with inflated oil prices winning out), but it also avoids false moves.

I believe your "secondary effect" is wishful thinking and not a real effect.

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marmoe September 6 2008, 12:59:24 UTC
Thank you for this helpful explanation. :)

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level_head September 6 2008, 16:03:17 UTC
You're welcome. And forgive me for re-using it. It feels silly trying to paraphrase to keep from plagiarizing ... myself. ];-)

===|=============/ Level Head

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marmoe September 6 2008, 17:08:22 UTC
There's nothing in need of my forgiveness. I am all for recycling good stuff. :-)

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level_head September 6 2008, 17:34:42 UTC
I can only guarantee that it's "stuff", not that it is "good".

But I try.

===|==============/ Level Head

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