Is the Presidential election already over?

[jpmassar]

18% of Ohio's voters have already voted. Another large hunk is expected to have voted well before November 6th.

There's been a lot of Ohio polls lately, but the only poll done so far that I've seen that distinguished those who already voted from those who didn't had Obama winning among those who already voted by a huge margin, 63-37Obviously it's

Comments

[barking_iguana]

And if you can call Ohio for Obama, you can pretty much call the election.

No, you can't.

Who probably wins if it goes to the House?

[jpmassar]

Yes you can.

[barking_iguana]

In several (I think most) of your polling posts over the past couple of months, Ohio was not the critical state. Meaning if you shift the national electorate, bit by bit, Ohio is still in the Obama column when Romney gets to 270. Do you think that doesn't matter?

[jpmassar]

No, it doesn't matter for what I'm saying. Basically, I'm saying that if I were to tell you that Ohio went to Obama, what would you then think (on a conditional probability basis) was the probability that Obama would win the election?

Doesn't matter whether Ohio turns out to be the tipping point state. If I could (hypothetically) predict with 99% certainty that Ohio is Obama's then can I "pretty much" call the election?

[schmengie]

"And if you can call Ohio for Obama, you can pretty much call the election."

i disagree...but it will be harder. With Florida, Colorado, NC and Virginia moving to Romney I believe he gets to 269 with Iowa and Nevada..

all big ifs but no way you can call it

[jpmassar]

Nevada is out of reach for Romney. The Hispanic vote will destroy him there, just as it did Angle. IMHO.

[schmengie]

i think you are being a bit over stated. a week ago everything was out of reach for Romney. The race has turned in a big way (3-5 points)

still 2 debates and 3+ weeks

[gunga_galunga]

I think if nothing bad enough to cost Obama Ohio, it's doubtful something would have cost him Nevada, Iowa, or Wisconsin. I don't think the states are that decoupled. If Obama wins Colorado, no way does he lose the election. Not because of Colorado's votes, but because if he wins Colorado, he's almost certainly won Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio.