Comments | jpmassar: Match the candidate with the poll numbers

jpmassar

Match the candidate with the poll numbers

Feb 18, 2012 20:27

Using the average of the seven latest national polls

Gingrich, Romney, Paul, Santorum :: 33%, 29% 14% 12%

( Answer )

rick santorum, romney, 2012 election, gingrich, ron paul

Comments 11

barking_iguana February 19 2012, 05:21:33 UTC

He won't even get a platform at FOX News as a consolation prize. Not that he'd want it, I suppose. There's no way to tell what he wants, except to be President.

barking_iguana February 19 2012, 05:22:26 UTC

Actually, I'd still bet even money he wins the nomination. But I wouldn't give significant odds anymore.

jpmassar February 19 2012, 05:28:44 UTC

71% chance for Romney on Intrade now.

barking_iguana February 19 2012, 05:39:17 UTC

That's not quite a sell for me (even if I had the money) but it's closer to a sell than to a buy. OTOH, when I back off a prediction, I usually regret it and I've been predicting Romney since we knew who the contenders were. I did call Santorum a clear buy when he was at 0.2% or so, seeing him as the only plausible fallback to Perry for that wing, but that doesn't mean he can win.

Thread 5

whipartist February 19 2012, 08:58:55 UTC

I did pretty good if I got #1 and #2 right, and reversed #3 and #4, right?

jpmassar February 19 2012, 16:15:26 UTC

Well, your possible outcomes were 0%, 25%, 50% or 100%, so if pretty good is the next step down from perfect then I guess you nailed it...

prock February 19 2012, 21:35:33 UTC

Given that there are 4! permutations, it seems there should be 4! possible outcomes.

clutch_c February 19 2012, 14:55:42 UTC

Plus Santorum had the lead or was tied in all seven polls. Romney can take comfort from the fact that it isn't a national election.

Democrats, on the other hand, can take comfort from the fact that the Republicans seem hell-bent on nominating the least electable candidate.

I might cash out my pension and put it all ... freelikebeer February 19 2012, 19:45:51 UTC

... on Barry if the republicans manage to nominate Santorum.

clutch_c February 19 2012, 15:28:54 UTC

Nate Silver points out that Santorum has outperformed his polls in the primaries, and that automated polls show an even stronger lead for him. To me this suggests that many republicans are embarrassed to admit they prefer Santorum, but in an impersonal automated poll or in the privacy of a voting booth they are willing to select him if no one can find out.