Tuesday is Election Day

[jpmassar]

And what an election day. Obscure, critical elections are taking place from coast to coast.

In California, a 12568 candidate race for Mayor in San Francisco is taking place using ranked-choice voting. The incumbent, Ed Lee, who swore he would not run when he was appointed to replace Gavin Newsom (who resigned to become Lieutenant Governor) seems

Comments

[tom_bayes]

We have elections in Kentucky, as well, for state-wide offices. Incumbent Governor Steve Beshear (D), who you may remember as the guy who tried to seize online poker domains before the DOJ, is favored to beat David Williams (R). Williams has tried to paint Beshear as Obama's best friend in Kentucky, but he is abrasive and unpopular and is predicted to get beaten badly. Also running is the always entertaining independent Gatewood Galbraith, who likes pot more than taxes

[jpmassar]

You have elections in Kentucky?

Seriously, every time the Governor's race was polled, Bershear was absolutely crushing the opposition, so no one's paid much attention to anything else there; that's my impression.

Was there polling on the SoS and Ag races?

[tom_bayes]

Yeah, some local polling has Grimes up by 10 points over Johnson. I think it will end up a bit closer but Grimes should win. The one toss-up is the Ag Commissioner with Farmer vs Comer within the margin of error.

The conventional wisdom is that Williams' shambolic performance as the Republican nominee for governor is going to depress turnout and hurt the downticket candidates. Williams will probably lose his position as State Senate President.

From a Democratic standpoint, it's much better these elections are happening tomorrow rather than in 2012, where the Kentuckians will be eager to cast anti-Obama votes.

[tom_bayes]

Early results show the Democrats winning all of the state-wide offices except Ag Commissioner. Gov. Beshear (D) is easily winning re-election, with David Williams (R) pulling in an embarrassing ~30% and independent Gatewood Galbraith (I; pro-pot, anti-tax) getting around 12%.

Alison Grimes, who is only 32, is routing Tea Partier Bill Johnson for SoS and is running ahead of all other Democrats, including Beshear.

The loser for the Democrats is Bob Farmer, who is gonna lose big to 39 year old James Comer (R) for Ag Commissioner. Apparently Bob made some insulting hillbilly jokes and the Eastern Kentuckians are getting their revenge in the voting booth.

Grimes and Comer will probably be seen in the future running for higher profile offices.