A massive 7.4 magnitude earthquake has hit Christchurch and the wider South Island, causing widespread damage, two serious injuries and power cuts to most of the city.
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NPR The 2010 Haiti earthquake was a catastrophic magnitude 7.0 earthquake...an estimated 230,000 people had died, 300,000 had been injured and 1,000,000 made homeless.
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For years I've been contrasting Loma Prieta (7.1), which killed about 60 people, with the Armenian quake (6.9) a year earlier, which killed 25,000. But this pair makes the point even more strongly: it's not the quake that kills you, it's the buildings falling down.
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I recently saw a presentation by a geologist. Scientists are expecting an 8.0 on the Southern end of the San Andreas "soon" (but they can't define that, of course), with the fault rupturing between the Salton Sea to the Carrizo Plain. They expect the shaking to last ~2 minutes here. The worst damage (they believe) for Southern California will be the likely cutoff in utilities...with some going weeks without service.
They do expect loss of life, especially in San Bernardino where there are plenty of unreinforced masonry (aka brick) buildings, and the fault runs just north of the city. Most of Southern California lies a good distance from the fault (which will lessen the catastrophe).
Perhaps I'll be out of the area when this happens....
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