Wright, right?

Mar 19, 2008 17:53

One way to judge the effect of some political event ( Read more... )

intrade, obama, clinton, wright

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Comments 3

prock March 20 2008, 03:49:37 UTC
It's probably a better indicator to look at 2008.PRES.McCAIN.

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jpmassar March 20 2008, 04:56:34 UTC
Perhaps, but I don't see how a second order
effect is more indicative than a first order effect.

In any case McCain went from 38 to 40 in the time
period in question, but he had been steadily rising
at the same rate for some time now.

His continuing rise might well have more to do with
the fact that there are still two squabblers for the
Dem nomination, rather than any particular property
of either of the squabblers.

In other words, his rising in the polls is simply
due to the fact that he exists (as the Rep nominee),
while the Dem nominee does not (yet) exist. People
like existence.

(-:

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freelikebeer March 20 2008, 18:43:40 UTC
Perhaps, but I don't see how a second order
effect is more indicative than a first order effect.

Indicator of market rationality?

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