AH - Possibility of German Victory in World War One

[jordan179]

Introduction

One fascinating counterfactual is the possibility of a German victory in the Great War. Here is my attempt to portray the best German chance of achieving such a result, despite the superiority of the British Navy and its ability to blockade the Central Powers.

Notes: ATL = Alternate Time Line, and OTL = Our Time Line.

Comments

[banner]

But you don't address the reasons why Germany entered the war. I think that's a major aspect that shaped the initial attacks and plans.

[jordan179]

But you don't address the reasons why Germany entered the war. I think that's a major aspect that shaped the initial attacks and plans.

Historically, the initial attacks derived from the mobilization plans which were shaped well in advance of the immediate causes of war. The German General Staff was the most advanced of its day, but by modern standards the planning was incredibly inflexible. Divisions mobilized, picked up their weapons, entrained, and were dropped off at their deployment areas which dictated their routes of march to battle. There was absolutely no ability to change mobilization schedules to meet changing diplomatic situations, which made the war more inevitable -- the Germans were actually afraid that France wouldn't declare war on them, because if France failed to do so then it threw all their timetables askew!

The Germans originally assumed that the war would probably begin with a French revanchist attack on Alsace-Lorraine and the Schlieffen Plan was all about flanking that attack by moving through the Low

[yechezkiel]

Easy answer to Germany winning the war: America stays home.

[eric_hinkle]

More than a few historians, pro and amateur, have agreed that we should have stayed out of the nonsense of WW1. I still don't see why Americans had to die over yet another idiotic European dynastic war.

[jordan179]

More than a few historians, pro and amateur, have agreed that we should have stayed out of the nonsense of WW1. I still don't see why Americans had to die over yet another idiotic European dynastic war.

Wilson did try to stay out. The Germans dragged us into it by sinking ships carrying American nationals without warning (remember, this was the first submarine warfare campaign in history, so the expectation was that the Germans would stop-and-capture) and (even more importantly) by trying to arouse the Mexicans against us.

In hindsight, if Wilson really wanted to keep us out, he should have forbidden Americans to travel into the blockade zone. But he probably didn't realize, in advance, what the Germans were going to do, and declaring such a policy after American civilians had drowned due to German torpedoes would have been seen as horribly weak by both American political parties.

[shadowfox24]

Actually the Germans did have somewhat of an effort to warn American citizens against traveling across the Atlantic. They hung posters in various major east coast ports like NYC and ran newspaper ads warning that Allied ships were legitimate targets and would be attacked without warning.

The secondary explosions showed that the Lusitania was carrying ammunition and thus was a legitimate military target.

[eric_hinkle]

Another part of it was precisely _because_ Nicholas II was a humane, enlightened ruler by comparison with Stalin -- rebels could plot against Nicholas II and still expect to go on living if their conspiracies were discovered. In many cases this was obviously a bad mistake -- for instance, if Tsarist Russia had routinely executed captured revolutionaries, most of the Old Bolsheviks would have been too busy decomposing to start the Russian Civil War.

Dunno how true it is, but I've read that this is exactly why the Bolsheviks started the massacres: "The tsars showed us mercy and we destroyed them. We won't make their mistake."

[jordan179]

Dunno how true it is, but I've read that this is exactly why the Bolsheviks started the massacres: "The tsars showed us mercy and we destroyed them. We won't make their mistake."

Practically all the Old Bolsheviks were veterans of the Tsarist Siberian exile colonies, and the knew first hand how ineffectual it was at either reforming or stopping determined rebels. Hence, when they had their chance at power, they were merciless to their foes.

Note that Nicholas II was neither "humane" nor "enlightened" by contemporary Western standards. Only by comparison with the Soviet dictators.

[eric_hinkle]

Note that Nicholas II was neither "humane" nor "enlightened" by contemporary Western standards. Only by comparison with the Soviet dictators.

Well, yes, there is that.

Though I do remember one tsar from the 19th century who tried to liberalise Russia. His "reward" was to be assassinated by some very foolish revolutionaries, which if I remember right killed any talk of even limited democracy in Russia until the 1990s.

[starglyte]

You are thinking of Alexander the II. While the Emancipation of the Serfs is held up as a good thing, it was done for more economic reason than for humanitarian ones. After the serfs learned how much it was going to cost them, they got really angry. It was one of the foundations for the fall of the monarchy 50 (give or take) years later.

[mythusmage]

I once did an alternate European War, but I cheated

[electorprince]

So what's China doing during all of this?

[jordan179]

I'm not familiar enough about the state of Chinese politics to judge what effect a German victory in World War I would have had on the Chinese Revolution. I'm guessing that the aftermath would see German, Russian, American, British and Japanese agents all courting various warlords, with a rough alignment between a pro-Central Powers and pro-Allied factions (but Chinese politics could be far more chaotic than this). The Communists, if they ever properly got off the ground absent Soviet support, would of course be weaker than in OTL.

[princejvstin]

Right. I think without a successful communist revolution in Russia, the communists in China are going to be weak-to-non existent.

My thought is that China in this timeline would eventually break into a loose set of polities, like it had in the past between some dynasties.

China would be a highly *interesting* place, with agents of the powers running loose and backing these various polities.