RP - Why Many Fans no Longer Believe in Atomic Energy or Space Colonization

[jordan179]

This is a repost of an essay I wrote in early 2007 (http://jordan179.livejournal.com/10268.html), expanded a tiny bit, and better-edited.

===I have noticed a tendency among science fiction fans, especially of a certain generation, to abandon the notions, popular 50 years ago, that we are

Comments

[avon_deer]

I for one am looking forward to the continued exploration of our solar system and beyond. Mars is the next logical step and to stand a realistic chance of reaching it, nuclear propulsion of some kind would be needed. I still believe it's going to happen. The drive has just slowed down a bit, thats all. It's just a question of when.

[jordan179]

Mars is the next logical step and to stand a realistic chance of reaching it, nuclear propulsion of some kind would be needed.

Well ... Mars is just barely attainable with chemical or solar-ion drives, but using such severely limits payload in the first case and reserve power in the second case. As long as we tool around the Inner System we can continue to pay homage to our anti-nuclear superstitions, though at a high cost in opportunity, and eventually at the cost of spaceships and lives,

Beyond the Inner System, though, chemical rockets are really impractical even for small manned ships, and solar power becomes less and less useful. I hope that our first Mars ships are nuclear-powered, but I know that we aren't going to be able to launch practical Jupiter or Saturn ships unless their are nuclear (they'll probably use chemical boosters to get in and out of orbit and a nuclear-ion drive for interplanetary travel).

(Yes, Stephen Baxter did outline a possible profile for a chemical-only Outer System mission in Titan, but note that

[mrbogey]

I really think nuclear power was a truly amazing step. All throughout history we had gotten power from observable methods. We saw wind and water moving push and carrying things along. We saw lightning create heat which created fire. But although we saw the result every day and night, we never saw an atomic reaction take place. The idea of fusion or fission came almost from the ether based entirely on prior work by scientists who explored the minutia of the natural world.

[jordan179]

The Golden and Silver Age science fiction writers who saw the attainment of nuclear technology as a truly civilization-changing development were right, the futurologists today who avoid considering it because it's unfashionable are fools who have failed to learn from the study of history that human taboos come and go, but physics remains.

[reality_hammer]

Unless we stop spending money like we have been the Chinese, Russians, Indians and Japanese will all be there before us...if we ever go back at all.

It's nice to look at Ares rockets in computer animations but Bush's call to get to Mars fell on a tepid audience and Obama clearly sees no reason to fund space exploration. (No votes out there, obviously!)

[jordan179]

Unless we stop spending money like we have been the Chinese, Russians, Indians and Japanese will all be there before us...if we ever go back at all.

Oh, indeed ... keep in mind that my optimism applies to humanity, not to any one particular nation. America might fail to expand beyond the Earth; this whole cycle of civilization might fail to expand beyond the Earth; but unless humanity is wiped out, humanity will not fail. We already have too great an understanding of the Laws of Nature to be kept on our planetary surface forever.

As an American I would very much like my country and my culture to be the foundation of the future Solar Civilization. But in a biological sense, it doesn't matter all that much whether it's democratic and liberty-loving Americans, autocratic and conspiratorial Russians, or urbane arrogant Chinese whose culture spreads across the System. Or, indeed, the culture of some nation yet to be born.

It's all "human."

[operations]

I don't think we'll ever see good fusion power or space exploration (or exploitation) ever, just because people are dumb fucking monkeys who have a reactionary fear of anything that might hurt their routine, boring ass lives.

Can't have Science! That might preempt American Idol!

[galadrion]

Sooner or later, however, the Atlases will grow annoyed enough and will find - or, more likely, create - their Gulch. And the masses won't even notice, until the crisis arrives...

Seriously, I honestly think that's the way it's going to have to happen... at least, if such developments come from the Western world. They've never originated with the institutions; always there has been some one person (or, very rarely, small group of people) who has driven the effort. Later, of course, the institutions lay claim to the credit... but the government consists uniformly of takers and fakers. The makers carry them, but are not of them. And eventually, the makers are going to take their toys elsewhere. I just hope I qualify to go along...

[jordan179]

The makers carry them, but are not of them. And eventually, the makers are going to take their toys elsewhere. I just hope I qualify to go along...

One thing the more optimistic science fiction gets totally right is that the humans who colonize other worlds will, especially at the beginning, tend to be far superior per capita to the ones who stay behind. One thing that some pessimistic SF may be getting right, though, is that said early colonists may be too focused in certain virtues, which could result in very narrow cultures like Asimov's Spacers, especially if a big cultural rift opens between Earthers and Spacers. I hope that the interflow of men and ideas between Earth and the colonies prevents that sort of development from materializing.

[jordan179]

I don't think we'll ever see good fusion power or space exploration (or exploitation) ever, just because people are dumb fucking monkeys who have a reactionary fear of anything that might hurt their routine, boring ass lives.

I think you're ignoring the ratchet-effect of technology (an advance gained is almost never wholly lost) and the complementary effect of different technologies (advances in materials, biotechnology or computers, for instance, each make space travel cheaper). I also think that you're limiting your view to one or a few human generations in one particular culture (modern America), and the human story as a whole is much broader and longer-term than that.

[banner]

Space exploration by the USA will only happen if private industry does it. NASA is a joke, and I expect we'll have pulled out of the ISS by the end of Obama's term, if not sooner.

BTW, where is my Flying Car???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsFfBB2W7IA

[polaris93]

Same place my city-wide monorail is -- lining the pockets of corrupt politicians. Like Seattle's current mayor, who completely ignored the voters who voted for a great extension of our monorail, and pocketed the money for a new stadium that the voters did not want.

I agree with you that if we do establish ourselves personally in space, it will only be through private industry.

[jordan179]

Space exploration by the USA will only happen if private industry does it.

Which private industry seems to be doing.

Actually, it's not so much the "exploration" at which NASA fails, it's the colonization. NASA seems blind to any purpose to spaceflight other than collecting scientific information about other worlds. Which is valuable in itself, of course, but is not the ultimate purpose of the endeavor.

NASA is a joke, and I expect we'll have pulled out of the ISS by the end of Obama's term, if not sooner.

I agree with you regarding NASA's incompetence. I was dismayed to learn that we are still operating under the assumption that we must "deorbit" and thus bring back to Earth's surface all the mass we launched in building the ISS. Even if (through inept planning) the ISS has a very short operational life, all that mass was put into orbit at great cost, and as much of it as possible should be re-used in the construction of new space infrastructure. NASA, operating on a totally non- or even anti-profit model, seems not to grasp