My answers for the Solar System are "I don't know" on all except the first one. For the first one, hasn't viral/microbial life already been discovered?
For the Universe, I think there are all of these things. I think that the universe is so vast that even with the odds being miniscule of any of this occuring, they'll be miniscule for every planet and moon and it'll average out to more than one case of life. I don't think every life starts at the same point, so I do believe it's likely to have various stages of civilization and life development.
As for "how common", I think that's a case of numbers being accurate but unhelpful. You can look at percentages and absolute numbers, and they'll say the same things but convey vastly different information. 3 billionths of a percent may be the same thing as 3 million, but they give very different impressions.
For the first one, hasn't viral/microbial life already been discovered?
Possibly. The jury is still out on the microfossils in the Martian meteorite and the anamolous methane exuded by the Martian ground, but there is a very good chance at least that Mars has life. At least on the level of microbes.
Right now, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan look like good bets for extraterrestrial life in the Solar System, with Mars being especially good because we've already found some evidence for its existence. Once we send a long-duration manned mission to Mars, we'll probably find out for certain.
For the first one, hasn't viral/microbial life already been discovered?
It's now regarded as HIGHLY unlikely that the 'fossils' were organic.
I think there's a reasonable chance Mars may have had life in the past, and a much smaller but still non-zero chance Mars has microbial life on it now. One of the things we've found on Earth is that life finds a way of existing in the most inhospitable environments.
For the first one, hasn't viral/microbial life already been discovered?
It's now regarded as HIGHLY unlikely that the 'fossils' were organic.
That's not the only evidence, though. There is anamolous methane being exuded by the Martian soil. And every time we take a closer look at Mars we see more and more evidence of larger and larger amounts of subsurface water.
And we are pretty sure that material from Earth occasionally lands on Mars, so even if an original Martian ecosystem died out, there's been plenty of chances for Earthly bacteria to revitalize the planet.
Since all the matter in the universe was created simulaneously from the same source (albeit coalescing in differing proportions in different places) the building blocks of life are therefore evenly distributed. I find it extremely hard to believe that in the vastness of the universe that Earthly "life" is all there is out there. Or more specifically I find it hard to believe that Earth is the only planet with the "correct" conditions to support some sort of carbon-based life, intelligent or otherwise.
Since all the matter in the universe was created simulaneously from the same source (albeit coalescing in differing proportions in different places) the building blocks of life are therefore evenly distributed.
I suppose you believe you believe in a literal interpretation of the bible, rather than a metaphorical? How do you know the great boogieman in the sky didn't start the ball rolling as I've stated in some sort of grand scheme?
If you want to take the bible so literally how did "god" create mankind? Adam & Eve, had Cain, Abel & Seth and probably quite a few more children as there wasn't much else to do back then other than screw? So then my next question would be did the siblings fuck each other or did they nail their mother?
Do me a favor and don't respond to me, I already know I'm a fucking asshole.
Your mistake was a pretty common supposition: That the Big Bang results in an evenly distributed amount of matter, which "makes sense" at a certain level but is also obviously false when you reflect on what we know about the universe.
Beyond the few stable nuclei assumed as being part of the Big Bang nucleosynthesis, there is no evidence of any sort of equal distribution after the fact, especially for complex molecules like amino acids. Even if, lets say, carbon could be shown to be relatively equally distributed (once controlling for all that empty space, of course), there is no reason to assume that proteins or anything like that are, as well.
I would also add that the "missing mass" of the known universe is another reason to be suspect that "perfect state" assumptions--like the even distribution of basic elements across the universe--are pieces of the ideal theoretical model that do not map to reality.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial ("not from this Earth," thus excluding astronauts, stray Earthly bacteria on probes, etc.) life anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
I don't know. I think it is more likely that there is ET life than there is a god. Life including little bacteriums. I know we have bacteria on earth that could survive in climates like mars, I don't remember if we've actually found anything alive on mars though.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial sentience (higher animal level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
Again, I don't know. I think it is likelier than god.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial sapience (ape to human level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
same as before, don't know. We currently have no evidence that there is.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial technological culture (at least Paleolithic level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
same as before Finally, do you think that there is
( ... )
although I do think it is possible that there is ET life out there (in higher form than bacteria), with a greater than 50% likliehood, but beyond that, I don't know.
Nothing above a microbe in this solar system. Aren't the most likely candidates for life (ex Earth) on a moon revolving around a gas giant? I haven't heard anything that encouraging from NASA about them.
Outside the Solar system? Yes. Roll the dice enough and you'll get monkeys typing out the Bible. However, for me, the really interesting question is when? Did we hit the sweet spot of sapience (i.e. enough time to evolve?), are we late to the party, or early? If not for a cosmic coincidence, dinosaurs may have evolved intelligence and the mammals would still be scurrying around under claw.
Will we actually meet another advanced lifeform from another planet? I don't think so. The distances and timelines make that very unlikely.
What is likely? Migrating humans evolve separately and reconnect. What a story that would make.
'Will we actually meet another advanced lifeform from another planet?' I hope so. If not then the lifetime of our species/civilization is probably very short. If civilizations last a million years then they should be about 100 light years apart in the Milky Way. That is close enough for radio communication and even some physical contact.
I share your ambition. I hope so, too. What makes me skeptical is generalizing from our sample of one: Earth. In hundreds of millions of years, only one species has gained the technology for radio communication. And that for less than a hundred years. Out of a solar system that has ten or so planets.
We've yet to hear from our neighbors in the Milky Way. Those are billions of stars with orbiting planets. Again, I evoke the timeline theory. Species could rise and fall a billion times before our chimp ancestors picked their nose.
Let's take your example of 100 LY distance. That distance is insurmountable in a universe where the speed of light is the speed limit. Generational ships would have to be built, only to arrive at an alien society a thousand millenia gone. And that's at near the speed of light.
I like my idea better: I go off mucking about at Alpha Centauri and come back to find out radiation has mutated human kind to tri-sexuals with silver lame' skin.
Non-terrestrial life somewhere in the solar system? It's possible. There are several promising environments, of which Europa is perhaps the most likely, though we have no idea of the kinds of life that might evolve in a non-terrestrial environment. We keep finding new environments terrestrial extremophiles can endure - though to them, we're probably the extremophiles ... by the standards of benthic thermal vent organisms, we live in near-vacuum in shockingly dry conditions, at temperatures so low that water can actually exist as a solid even in the near-vacuum, bathed in appallingly intense fluxes of visible and ultraviolet light
( ... )
Extraterrestrial sophonts in the solar system? Again, if they eist, we've seen no sign yet, but we haven't explored any significant fraction of any planet or satellite but our own yet.
That's a very good point. We've explored Luna and Mars far better than we have any other extraterrestrial worlds in the Solar System, but we've only scratched the surface a little. Even Luna might have life without us being aware of it, and either world could (though it's far more likely in the case of Mars) have a complex macroscopic ecosystem.
In both cases it would be subterranean, but this isn't necessarily an insurmountable obstacle. Mars in particular seems to have a lot of subterranean water.
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For the Universe, I think there are all of these things. I think that the universe is so vast that even with the odds being miniscule of any of this occuring, they'll be miniscule for every planet and moon and it'll average out to more than one case of life. I don't think every life starts at the same point, so I do believe it's likely to have various stages of civilization and life development.
As for "how common", I think that's a case of numbers being accurate but unhelpful. You can look at percentages and absolute numbers, and they'll say the same things but convey vastly different information. 3 billionths of a percent may be the same thing as 3 million, but they give very different impressions.
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Possibly. The jury is still out on the microfossils in the Martian meteorite and the anamolous methane exuded by the Martian ground, but there is a very good chance at least that Mars has life. At least on the level of microbes.
Right now, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan look like good bets for extraterrestrial life in the Solar System, with Mars being especially good because we've already found some evidence for its existence. Once we send a long-duration manned mission to Mars, we'll probably find out for certain.
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It's now regarded as HIGHLY unlikely that the 'fossils' were organic.
I think there's a reasonable chance Mars may have had life in the past, and a much smaller but still non-zero chance Mars has microbial life on it now. One of the things we've found on Earth is that life finds a way of existing in the most inhospitable environments.
Reply
It's now regarded as HIGHLY unlikely that the 'fossils' were organic.
That's not the only evidence, though. There is anamolous methane being exuded by the Martian soil. And every time we take a closer look at Mars we see more and more evidence of larger and larger amounts of subsurface water.
And we are pretty sure that material from Earth occasionally lands on Mars, so even if an original Martian ecosystem died out, there's been plenty of chances for Earthly bacteria to revitalize the planet.
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The not so simple but still simplistic answer:
Since all the matter in the universe was created simulaneously from the same source (albeit coalescing in differing proportions in different places) the building blocks of life are therefore evenly distributed. I find it extremely hard to believe that in the vastness of the universe that Earthly "life" is all there is out there. Or more specifically I find it hard to believe that Earth is the only planet with the "correct" conditions to support some sort of carbon-based life, intelligent or otherwise.
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Your first mistake happens here.
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I suppose you believe you believe in a literal interpretation of the bible, rather than a metaphorical? How do you know the great boogieman in the sky didn't start the ball rolling as I've stated in some sort of grand scheme?
If you want to take the bible so literally how did "god" create mankind? Adam & Eve, had Cain, Abel & Seth and probably quite a few more children as there wasn't much else to do back then other than screw? So then my next question would be did the siblings fuck each other or did they nail their mother?
Do me a favor and don't respond to me, I already know I'm a fucking asshole.
Reply
Your mistake was a pretty common supposition: That the Big Bang results in an evenly distributed amount of matter, which "makes sense" at a certain level but is also obviously false when you reflect on what we know about the universe.
Beyond the few stable nuclei assumed as being part of the Big Bang nucleosynthesis, there is no evidence of any sort of equal distribution after the fact, especially for complex molecules like amino acids. Even if, lets say, carbon could be shown to be relatively equally distributed (once controlling for all that empty space, of course), there is no reason to assume that proteins or anything like that are, as well.
I would also add that the "missing mass" of the known universe is another reason to be suspect that "perfect state" assumptions--like the even distribution of basic elements across the universe--are pieces of the ideal theoretical model that do not map to reality.
Reply
I don't know. I think it is more likely that there is ET life than there is a god. Life including little bacteriums. I know we have bacteria on earth that could survive in climates like mars, I don't remember if we've actually found anything alive on mars though.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial sentience (higher animal level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
Again, I don't know. I think it is likelier than god.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial sapience (ape to human level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
same as before, don't know. We currently have no evidence that there is.
Do you think that there is extraterrestrial technological culture (at least Paleolithic level) anywhere in the Solar System? In the Universe?
same as before Finally, do you think that there is ( ... )
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Outside the Solar system? Yes. Roll the dice enough and you'll get monkeys typing out the Bible. However, for me, the really interesting question is when? Did we hit the sweet spot of sapience (i.e. enough time to evolve?), are we late to the party, or early? If not for a cosmic coincidence, dinosaurs may have evolved intelligence and the mammals would still be scurrying around under claw.
Will we actually meet another advanced lifeform from another planet? I don't think so. The distances and timelines make that very unlikely.
What is likely? Migrating humans evolve separately and reconnect. What a story that would make.
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See the Traveller RPG, or Isaac Asimov's oldie but goodie "Homo Sol".
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We've yet to hear from our neighbors in the Milky Way. Those are billions of stars with orbiting planets. Again, I evoke the timeline theory. Species could rise and fall a billion times before our chimp ancestors picked their nose.
Let's take your example of 100 LY distance. That distance is insurmountable in a universe where the speed of light is the speed limit. Generational ships would have to be built, only to arrive at an alien society a thousand millenia gone. And that's at near the speed of light.
I like my idea better: I go off mucking about at Alpha Centauri and come back to find out radiation has mutated human kind to tri-sexuals with silver lame' skin.
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That's a very good point. We've explored Luna and Mars far better than we have any other extraterrestrial worlds in the Solar System, but we've only scratched the surface a little. Even Luna might have life without us being aware of it, and either world could (though it's far more likely in the case of Mars) have a complex macroscopic ecosystem.
In both cases it would be subterranean, but this isn't necessarily an insurmountable obstacle. Mars in particular seems to have a lot of subterranean water.
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Hadn't seen that one before.
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