Comments | jhub3000: Analyzing Your Luck: Factoring Everything In

jhub3000

Analyzing Your Luck: Factoring Everything In

Feb 01, 2011 14:12

Poker players like to analyze how lucky they are. Some are delusional players who play mediocre w/ an 8% ROI over 1K games & a selective memory that causes them to whine like little bitches at the tables. Others use luck analyzers such as all in EV on HEM to analyze how lucky they are. No matter which type you are, hopefully this entry will help ( Read more... )

Comments 20

wow, nice work! anonymous February 3 2011, 19:47:10 UTC

I just tried to use your average stake * average ROI/100 formula on about 4k games sample from 2 sites. Also I'm almost everywhere (in MTTs, MTT-SNGs and STTs) below expectation ranging from 5-40%, its nice possibility to know, how you're running in certain game types and when.

I'll do it with more detailed stats from my HEM and not from SharkScope next time, just curious what results I'll get then, thanks!

hem ev stat anonymous February 4 2011, 01:47:38 UTC

well hello there, just curious if you would be willing to put up a hem graph of your red line and maybe talk about normal swings/abnormal swings? Also how much thought do you put into the red line for these super turbos when alot of the things are almost unavoidable due to the nature of stack sizes, etc

thanks for your time mate looking forward to your reply

Re: hem ev stat jhub3000 February 4 2011, 02:03:22 UTC

I've actually tried posting a graph before but got some error on HEM. Maybe I'll try again sometime ( ... )

Re: hem ev stat anonymous February 4 2011, 03:54:27 UTC

brilliant response mate you bring up some great points that are always overlooked imo. just a few more Q's

Card distribution ev you mentioned, is there any way to quantify it? as in running 2% below EV in card dist? I guess what Im trying to say is there any way to check/validate that or is it just a guess? Im assuming you reckon a guess.

When I mentioned swings i meant ev/red line bi swings for the super turbos not actual $, unless your answer was directed to this then I apologise mate!

Regarding the graph its rather simple mate just right click on the graph and save image as .jpg and host it on any site or even your blog maybe.

Cheers and good luck to you as well

Re: hem ev stat jhub3000 February 5 2011, 14:14:09 UTC

There's definitely no way to quantify card distribution & I don't expect there to ever be. It seems like it would be too complicated. You'd never be able to remember either because you'd probably just have selective memory. If you have played a lot of games in your career you might have a better idea of what kind of ROI to expect. You could then look at your unadjusted & adjusted #s & estimate. A spot where you should be able to get a good idea is comparing ROIs buy-ins across levels, as in this blog entry. In the entry the player has an adjusted ROI of 2.5% at $50s over 7,000 games & 3% at $35s over 4,000 games, which averages out to an adjusted of 2.68% at an avg. stake of $44.55. Those sample sizes aren't perfect but they'll probably get you within 1% of your true ROI. We then see he has a negative adjusted ROI at $100s & $200s over 2,000 games each. Those are smaller samples & 2,000 games adjusted will probably only get you within 4.3% or so of your true ROI. Given these 2 sets of sample sizes, math & common sense lead ( ... )

Thread 6

other players all-in anonymous February 4 2011, 17:44:36 UTC

do you know if the HEM red line accounts for other players being all-in on bubbles? for example, when a player should bust and get you into the money but sucks out and stays on the table instead.

Re: other players all-in jhub3000 February 4 2011, 17:57:51 UTC

I think it does but I'm not sure

Re: other players all-in jhub3000 February 4 2011, 20:39:34 UTC

Actually after thinking this through I'm pretty sure it does account for this. If you look at another player under results it shows their adjusted ROI/profit so I can't imagine the program would calculate this but not make use of it for Hero's stats.

On a sidenote, other players adjusted #s will pretty much always be negative because it only factors in the hands that you were at the table. If you bust 6th & they take 1st HEM doesn't know this.

GL,
Hub

yudinetz February 6 2011, 13:01:30 UTC

hi jhub!
im "gondyras" at FTP. what do u think about me? im very bad, dont i ?
could you give some adivces how to improve skill at STs ?

jhub3000 February 6 2011, 16:35:32 UTC

lol I don't coach. Games are tough enough as it is. You're good anyway. Trust me, I wouldn't say that if I didn't so. You're definitely a player I try to avoid if there's another good reg in the game w/ no fish.

Gl at the tables,
Hub

9 man suer turbos anonymous February 10 2011, 02:27:47 UTC

Howdy, enjoy your blog, do you plan on playing the 9man superturbos on Tilt this year? Imagine you would do well.

Re: 9 man suer turbos jhub3000 February 10 2011, 03:07:54 UTC

I don't have any plans for it at this time. With the current state of the game I don't see myself being able to just immediately jump into 9 mans & crush. I would probably have to do a significant amount of studying, which I just don't really have any ambition to do right now. If I was going to put the time into studying a different game it would probably be something other than 9 man STs. I'm doing just fine w/ 6 mans though.

GL,
Hub