Delusional

[henwy]

This is going to be my last word on the NH primary. Actually, last night's entry was supposed to be the last word but I was reading Slate and ran across something that pissed me off a bit. First and foremost, Slate is full of left of center hippies for the most part. It's been a real clash for some of them over who to fawn over when it comes to the

Comments

[jem_endured_fit]

I would never take the position that my vote was 'owed' to my gender. This means people aren't even focused on what is important.

In all reality, it is better to be the one hated by everyone doing good, than to be super popular and not know what to do at all.

[henwy]

Did you see the Gloria Steinem article in the NYT a couple days ago? Apparently you DO owe your vote to Hillary. To do otherwise is to join the male patriarchy in oppressing her.

What worries me is that some women, perhaps especially younger ones, hope to deny or escape the sexual caste system; thus Iowa women over 50 and 60, who disproportionately supported Senator Clinton, proved once again that women are the one group that grows more radical with age.

Tsk, tsk. Shame on all the young women.

[jem_endured_fit]

I know! The NERVE of me! I just must secretly be male because I sit and think about the requirements of the individual for the position and not about the sexual caste system.

Bet those XX supporters aren't aware that female votes really don't count. It's all a scam and a feel good presentation.

[henwy]

That's right. Now go and make me a sandwich.

[vilhelm]

Why, oh why, do you go out of your way to read these Hippie lovefest screeds then? You certainly don't need the added misery, do you? Or perhaps you simply enjoy being annoyed?

And speaking as a very liberal Democrat, even I don't buy this bullshit, so what makes you think most moderately-liberal people do? Do you ascribe the same sort of general asshattery to the people who believe it is a woman's obligation to submit to her husband (i.e., Huckabee)?

Also, why, after saying "here you have a woman versus a black man" did you have to bring bukkake into it? It's almost like you're trying to put unwelcome images into my brain...

[henwy]

Ummm, these _ARE_ moderate liberal people. Self-proclaimed anyway. I'm not sure you're at all familiar with Slate but it's not a Salon-clone or anything. These wankers would probably claim that they don't even have a liberal bent. So what makes you think that this isn't the moderate liberal view?

[kadeshaderow]

All polls have a margin of error around 5%. Obama's margin was about 6.1 as of the last polling, deduct 5, add 5 to Hillary, and you almost get close to what the result was.

[henwy]

Obama's margin, according to _Hillary's_ polls the day of the primary was 11 points. Since he ended up losing by 3, that's a 14 point reversal. Also, a +/- of 5% is pretty large. Most of the good polls pull 3-4 tops.

If you look at the results statisticly, they're even more skewed than those numbers would reflect. The original polls showed a 11 point lead with a certain percentage of undecided voters in the mix. Exit polling showed that last minute undecideds actually broke for Obama, rather than a 50-50 split or for Hillary. Thus, the margin that Hillary's own internal poll missed by was far larger.

[kadeshaderow]

Most of them used about a 500-person sample size, so that's around 4.5%. One of the polls showed an 11 point lead. The others were slimmer. The trend line I was studying averaged the polls of the 7th and maybe 6th and came up with 36 O/30 H. The XX Factor still sucks, but it seems a plausible explanation to me.

Some people have a different theory, however.

[henwy]

Ya, and some people are nutjobs. The fanaticism with diebold machines borders on insanity. I suppose the reasoning here is that the republicans reprogrammed them because they secretly want Hillary to win? As far as Occam's razor goes, I think I'll stick with the No Niggers idea.

Real Clear Politics still has the poll averages up for New Hampshire on their site. It shows a substantial Obama lead up to the event. Some people have suggested that there was closing in the final day that might not have been picked up by polling averages, but that's recently been shot out of the water by Blumenthal who took a look at the final day talllies (extrapolated) and of the 4 polls that were doing running averages, 2 showed a net obama gain on the last day and 2 showed a net obama loss. Basically a wash.