For discussion

[fpb]

I think that the future of the whole world depends on two monstrous gambles, in which most of us are concerned. One is to do with Islam: the effort to tame the rebellious and Titanic spirit of this religion by continued acquaintance and collaboration with a world that now includes not only the West but also the Far East and India. The other is the

Comments

[bufo_viridis]

Right, to make matters clear, I do not think the invasion is imminent. In fact there are several other military scenarios, less violent, but ending in the same result, namely subjugation of the island

[fpb]

Neither the PRC nor Taiwan actually recognize the latter's independence, and so far no election in Taiwan has yet returned a clear majority for independence. One young woman from there once told me that her mother used to tell her: "remember, we are not Taiwanese, we are Chinese". So I would say that even within Taiwan itself, there must still be some considerable residual pressure towards not recognizing the separation of the two countries, quite apart from China's great success in avoiding to have the matter of Taiwan considered in any other light by the international community. Independence only exists if it is recognized both inside and outside, and thus far neither Taiwan itself nor any other official body has recognized it. That is why I say "virtual".

[bufo_viridis]

All what you said above is true. But the fact of not recognizing the indepedence does not mean the country is not independent. Taiwan - or Republic of China in its present form - fulfills all the legal demands for a state. The current status of Taiwan is, to put it simply, a legal fiction, upheld by all interested parties for the sake of peace, or rather, lack of violence :)
Among Taiwanese the matter of identity is fast changing and also much fluctuating; the very rough estimate would be to say that one third is for indepedence, one for unification and one has no clear opinion. If you want me to go into details, I can post fragments of the article I co-authored on the subject of the legal status of Taiwan (can't post whole one, hasn't yet been published).

[fpb]

I think you underrate the importance of international law. After all, independence is a legal concept.

[patchworkmind]

I have thought such many times myself, but I've just kept quiet it on it. I see no reason to ponder what might happen with China, because as with much of the affairs that have to do with them... They do what they want when they want because they do nothing without a great deal of planning and preparation. They also tend to corner the planetary market not only on economy -- but on patience.