Political Campaigning (Tuesday, February 7, 4th period)
Josh looked up from his paper when the campaign students came into the classroom. "Okay, you've been dealing in the hypothetical long enough. I'm going to throw some numbers at you today. Prepare to take notes."
On the board he wrote:
Senate voter turnout 2000: 402,197
Presidential voter turnout 2000: 417,593
Senate voter turnout 2002: 333,560
Presidential voter turnout 2004: 455,642
"So there are roughly a hundred thousand voters who stay home in non-presidential years. These are all potential converts to your wonderful candidate."
He looked down at his notes. "In 2000 there were more people registered to vote than live in Montana. They had a turnout rate of 58.9 percent, higher than the national voter turnout percentage but still nothing to write home about. After a culling of the voter registry, there were now 514,668 registered voters in Montana for 2002, with a 66.1 percent turnout rate, which is huge for a non-presidential race. The 2004 election had a 69.1 percent turnout rate, which is still higher than average. For this election, assume that the turnout percentage will be somewhere in between-say 67.5 percent. So you multiply 67.5 times the registered voter number, divide by two, and add one."
He scrawled 173,701 on the board. "There's your 50 percent plus one. That's how many votes you'll need to win."
He passed out a piece of paper. "Here are the numbers that will make your lives easier."
The top quartile most Republican (by percentage) counties in 2004:
Garfield: 89.12 %
Carter: 86.52%
Powder River: 82.46%
Fallon: 78.06%
Phillips: 76.19%
Petroleum: 76%
Golden Valley: 75.57%
Sweet Grass: 75.26%
Prairie: 74.18%
Judith Basin: 72.90%
Fergus: 72.22%
Richland: 72.19%
Wibaux: 71.78%
Stillwater: 71.76%
COMBINED VOTES: 19,579: Not so helpful.
The top quartile most Democratic (by percentage) counties in 2004:
Deer Lodge: 58.24%
Silver Bow: 57.56%
Glacier: 57.05%
Roosevelt: 53.81%
Missoula: 51.12%
Big Horn: 50.65%
Blaine: 46.02%
Hill: 44.19%
Rosebud: 42.01%
Lewis & Clark: 41.48%
Gallatin: 40.91%
Sheridan: 40.71%
Cascade: 39.86%
Lake: 39.05%
COMBINED VOTES: 100,487: Much more helpful.
Top quartile most Republican (by total votes) counties in 2004:
Yellowstone: 40,903
Flathead: 26,019
Missoula: 23,989
Gallatin: 22,392
Cascade: 19,028
Lewis & Clark: 16,494
Ravalli: 13,279
Lake: 7245
Silver Bow: 6381
Lincoln: 5889
Park: 4771
Fergus: 4425
Jefferson: 3844
Hill: 3505
TOTAL VOTES: 198,164
Top quartile most Democratic (by total votes) counties in 2004:
Missoula: 26,983
Yellowstone: 24,120
Gallatin: 16,405
Cascade: 13,701
Lewis & Clark: 12.717
Flathead: 11,587
Silver Bow: 9307
Ravalli: 6144
Lake: 4960
Park: 3199
Hill: 2997
Deer Lodge: 2700
Glacier: 2641
Lincoln: 2320
TOTAL VOTES: 139,781
"Twelve of the fourteen counties are on both lists, and that's because the population of Montana is concentrated in several large cities and then spread out over thousands of acres of farmland. Yellowstone County (home to Billings), Flathead County (Kalispell), Missoula County (Missoula), Gallatin County (Bozeman), Cascade County (Great Falls), and Lewis & Clark County (Helena) are particularly important," Josh said.
Top quartile most Republican (by total votes) counties in 2002 (where the Democratic Senator beat the Republican challenger like a drum):
Yellowstone: 13,796
Flathead: 11,069
Missoula: 8806
Cascade: 6378
Ravalli: 6270
Lewis & Clark: 5764
Gallatin: 3734
Lake: 3568
Lincoln: 3026
Fergus: 2252
Park: 2061
Sanders: 1875
Silver Bow: 1692
Jefferson: 1440
TOTAL VOTES: 71,641
Top quartile most Democratic (by total votes) counties in 2002:
Yellowstone: 29,750
Missoula: 22,111
Cascade: 17,491
Lewis & Clark: 15,543
Flathead: 13,011
Silver Bow: 9881
Gallatin: 8366
Ravalli: 6640
Lake: 5145
Hill: 3819
Park: 3657
Lincoln: 3428
Deer Lodge: 3169
Big Horn: 2970
TOTAL VOTES: 144,981
Josh looked up at the class. "So there's not a lot of shifting in terms of who votes for what, at least by county. You'll be going head to head with the other party for the same votes for most of the election."
The fourteen most consistently Democratic counties:
Silver Bow
Glacier
Big Horn
Roosevelt
Deer Lodge
Blaine
Hill
Rosebud
Missoula
Cascade
Lewis & Clark
Sheridan
Yellowstone
Josh pointed at the map of Montana. "Not surprisingly, seven of the fourteen are counties that are home to Indian reservations. The fourteen most consistently Republican counties are ones where no one lives:
Carter
Garfield
Powder River
Sweet Grass
Petroleum
Fallon
Phillips
Golden Valley
Meagher
Madison
Prairie
Fergus
Richland
Lincoln
He looked at the class. "Today, your job is to find out where these counties are, get an idea of why these voters like your party so much, and decide where your campaign headquarters and your field offices should be located."
On the board he wrote:
Senate voter turnout 2000: 402,197
Presidential voter turnout 2000: 417,593
Senate voter turnout 2002: 333,560
Presidential voter turnout 2004: 455,642
"So there are roughly a hundred thousand voters who stay home in non-presidential years. These are all potential converts to your wonderful candidate."
He looked down at his notes. "In 2000 there were more people registered to vote than live in Montana. They had a turnout rate of 58.9 percent, higher than the national voter turnout percentage but still nothing to write home about. After a culling of the voter registry, there were now 514,668 registered voters in Montana for 2002, with a 66.1 percent turnout rate, which is huge for a non-presidential race. The 2004 election had a 69.1 percent turnout rate, which is still higher than average. For this election, assume that the turnout percentage will be somewhere in between-say 67.5 percent. So you multiply 67.5 times the registered voter number, divide by two, and add one."
He scrawled 173,701 on the board. "There's your 50 percent plus one. That's how many votes you'll need to win."
He passed out a piece of paper. "Here are the numbers that will make your lives easier."
The top quartile most Republican (by percentage) counties in 2004:
Garfield: 89.12 %
Carter: 86.52%
Powder River: 82.46%
Fallon: 78.06%
Phillips: 76.19%
Petroleum: 76%
Golden Valley: 75.57%
Sweet Grass: 75.26%
Prairie: 74.18%
Judith Basin: 72.90%
Fergus: 72.22%
Richland: 72.19%
Wibaux: 71.78%
Stillwater: 71.76%
COMBINED VOTES: 19,579: Not so helpful.
The top quartile most Democratic (by percentage) counties in 2004:
Deer Lodge: 58.24%
Silver Bow: 57.56%
Glacier: 57.05%
Roosevelt: 53.81%
Missoula: 51.12%
Big Horn: 50.65%
Blaine: 46.02%
Hill: 44.19%
Rosebud: 42.01%
Lewis & Clark: 41.48%
Gallatin: 40.91%
Sheridan: 40.71%
Cascade: 39.86%
Lake: 39.05%
COMBINED VOTES: 100,487: Much more helpful.
Top quartile most Republican (by total votes) counties in 2004:
Yellowstone: 40,903
Flathead: 26,019
Missoula: 23,989
Gallatin: 22,392
Cascade: 19,028
Lewis & Clark: 16,494
Ravalli: 13,279
Lake: 7245
Silver Bow: 6381
Lincoln: 5889
Park: 4771
Fergus: 4425
Jefferson: 3844
Hill: 3505
TOTAL VOTES: 198,164
Top quartile most Democratic (by total votes) counties in 2004:
Missoula: 26,983
Yellowstone: 24,120
Gallatin: 16,405
Cascade: 13,701
Lewis & Clark: 12.717
Flathead: 11,587
Silver Bow: 9307
Ravalli: 6144
Lake: 4960
Park: 3199
Hill: 2997
Deer Lodge: 2700
Glacier: 2641
Lincoln: 2320
TOTAL VOTES: 139,781
"Twelve of the fourteen counties are on both lists, and that's because the population of Montana is concentrated in several large cities and then spread out over thousands of acres of farmland. Yellowstone County (home to Billings), Flathead County (Kalispell), Missoula County (Missoula), Gallatin County (Bozeman), Cascade County (Great Falls), and Lewis & Clark County (Helena) are particularly important," Josh said.
Top quartile most Republican (by total votes) counties in 2002 (where the Democratic Senator beat the Republican challenger like a drum):
Yellowstone: 13,796
Flathead: 11,069
Missoula: 8806
Cascade: 6378
Ravalli: 6270
Lewis & Clark: 5764
Gallatin: 3734
Lake: 3568
Lincoln: 3026
Fergus: 2252
Park: 2061
Sanders: 1875
Silver Bow: 1692
Jefferson: 1440
TOTAL VOTES: 71,641
Top quartile most Democratic (by total votes) counties in 2002:
Yellowstone: 29,750
Missoula: 22,111
Cascade: 17,491
Lewis & Clark: 15,543
Flathead: 13,011
Silver Bow: 9881
Gallatin: 8366
Ravalli: 6640
Lake: 5145
Hill: 3819
Park: 3657
Lincoln: 3428
Deer Lodge: 3169
Big Horn: 2970
TOTAL VOTES: 144,981
Josh looked up at the class. "So there's not a lot of shifting in terms of who votes for what, at least by county. You'll be going head to head with the other party for the same votes for most of the election."
The fourteen most consistently Democratic counties:
Silver Bow
Glacier
Big Horn
Roosevelt
Deer Lodge
Blaine
Hill
Rosebud
Missoula
Cascade
Lewis & Clark
Sheridan
Yellowstone
Josh pointed at the map of Montana. "Not surprisingly, seven of the fourteen are counties that are home to Indian reservations. The fourteen most consistently Republican counties are ones where no one lives:
Carter
Garfield
Powder River
Sweet Grass
Petroleum
Fallon
Phillips
Golden Valley
Meagher
Madison
Prairie
Fergus
Richland
Lincoln
He looked at the class. "Today, your job is to find out where these counties are, get an idea of why these voters like your party so much, and decide where your campaign headquarters and your field offices should be located."