EWI и Investors Intelligence - верхи близко
Новостная лента EWI (S&P 500: Momentum Sends a Market Message): рекордно низкие объемы за последние четыре года, доля NYSE Up Volume снижается, NYSE Advance/Decline Ratio снижается, S&P 500 Percentage Above 10-week Moving Average вышел из экстремальной зоны и рисует дивергенцию.
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"...total exchange volume has been in a steady downtrend since last October...stock-exchange volume...has dropped to its lowest level in at least four years. It is a weak foundation for a stock rally." Short Term Update, Jan. 25, 2012
The past several weeks in particular have seen the percentage of up volume declining in the New York Stock Exchange. Moreover, the NYSE advance/decline ratio has been going downhill.
There's more...
Even as prices rallied, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks below their 10-week moving average indicates the advance has been weaker than many investors may realize. Take a look at the chart below:
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Новостная рассылка Investors Intelligence: NYSE Percentage Above 10-Week Moving Average и NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator вошли в зону экстремальных значений.
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... Take a look at ... two of II's US breadth indicators - the NYSE % 10-week moving average (a short-term breadth indicator), and the NYSE Bullish % indicator (a medium to long term health measure of the US market). Two valuable tools for market timing.
The NYSE % 10-week moving average is a short-term breadth indicator; analyzed by us at Investors Intelligence since 1968. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of stocks in the NYSE trading above their own 10-week moving average. Typically in a year the indicator will only reach current levels (this week's high was 86.36%) a handful of times, after which equities would correct or consolidate.
Over the past two years there have been three overbought instances as per the current overbought condition. For example, in April 2010, the S&P 500 corrected 17%. In October 2010, the index went sideways. In October 2011 the index shed 10%. The corrections do not always follow immediately but certainly inside of a few weeks.
This indicator stresses short-term caution.
Our NYSE Bullish % indicator is another breadth indicator, but in this case it plots the medium to long-term health of the market.
The indicator illustrates the percentage of stocks in the NYSE with Point & Figure bull trends. The current reading is 72.63% and climbing. The figure is moving into overbought territory but until it prints a P&F three-box reversal and drops back beneath 66%, the outlook in the months ahead remains favorable.
The strategy which can be drawn from both indicators is that a correction, as seems likely from the NYSE 10-week MA indicator, would be buying opportunity. However, should the NYSE Bullish % P&F experience sufficient damage during a correction, with support at 66% being broken, then buying should be curbed and defensive measures would be called for until both indicators develop bottoms.
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"...total exchange volume has been in a steady downtrend since last October...stock-exchange volume...has dropped to its lowest level in at least four years. It is a weak foundation for a stock rally." Short Term Update, Jan. 25, 2012
The past several weeks in particular have seen the percentage of up volume declining in the New York Stock Exchange. Moreover, the NYSE advance/decline ratio has been going downhill.
There's more...
Even as prices rallied, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks below their 10-week moving average indicates the advance has been weaker than many investors may realize. Take a look at the chart below:
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Новостная рассылка Investors Intelligence: NYSE Percentage Above 10-Week Moving Average и NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator вошли в зону экстремальных значений.
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... Take a look at ... two of II's US breadth indicators - the NYSE % 10-week moving average (a short-term breadth indicator), and the NYSE Bullish % indicator (a medium to long term health measure of the US market). Two valuable tools for market timing.
The NYSE % 10-week moving average is a short-term breadth indicator; analyzed by us at Investors Intelligence since 1968. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of stocks in the NYSE trading above their own 10-week moving average. Typically in a year the indicator will only reach current levels (this week's high was 86.36%) a handful of times, after which equities would correct or consolidate.
Over the past two years there have been three overbought instances as per the current overbought condition. For example, in April 2010, the S&P 500 corrected 17%. In October 2010, the index went sideways. In October 2011 the index shed 10%. The corrections do not always follow immediately but certainly inside of a few weeks.
This indicator stresses short-term caution.
Our NYSE Bullish % indicator is another breadth indicator, but in this case it plots the medium to long-term health of the market.
The indicator illustrates the percentage of stocks in the NYSE with Point & Figure bull trends. The current reading is 72.63% and climbing. The figure is moving into overbought territory but until it prints a P&F three-box reversal and drops back beneath 66%, the outlook in the months ahead remains favorable.
The strategy which can be drawn from both indicators is that a correction, as seems likely from the NYSE 10-week MA indicator, would be buying opportunity. However, should the NYSE Bullish % P&F experience sufficient damage during a correction, with support at 66% being broken, then buying should be curbed and defensive measures would be called for until both indicators develop bottoms.
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