War links

[erudito]

About changes in the Imperial Roman army.

What could unite Tony Benn and Norman (now Lord) Tebbitt? The need for a memorial to Sir Keith Park.

Christmas day massacre in the Congo.

Review of a book on civilian immunity in war. About the review. A Jordanian paper comments via a cartoon on (I think) Hamas’ tactics. Another cartoon making a

Comments

Benny Morris Overstates the Threat of a Second Holocaust posed by Iran

[jordan179]

Benny Morris said

With a country the size and shape of Israel (an elongated 20,000 square kilometers), probably four or five hits will suffice: No more Israel. A million or more Israelis in the greater Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem areas will die immediately. Millions will be seriously irradiated. Israel has about seven million inhabitants.

This is a serious overestimation of the likely lethality of even thermonuclear (let alone mere fission) weapons. In reality, most of those in the "damage" zones will survive, as will most of those who are "seriously irradiated," based upon the various studies of the medical effects of exposure to ionizing radiation conducted during the Cold War. This overestimation comes from the sloppy practice, made popular among the Left during that same war, of simply plopping down "damage" and "fallout" circles over maps and assuming that everyone within those circles is doomed. If things really worked like that, Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have been destroyed and depopulated, rather than just badly

The Supposed Israeli Strategic Dilemna

[jordan179]

This dilemma had long ago been accurately defined by a wise general: Israel's nuclear armory is unusable. It can only be used too early or too late. There will never be a "right" time. Use it "too early," meaning before Iran acquires similar weapons, and Israel will be cast in the role of international pariah, a target of universal Muslim assault, without a friend in the world; "too late" means after the Iranians have struck. What purpose would that serve?

Realistically, this problem is purely one of Israeli psychology. If Israel nuked Iran now, it would be a "pariah" only to Europe, and the Europeans would do nothing of practical import in consequence of their condemnation. If Israel nuked Iran in retaliation after the attack, the launch would serve several purposes:

(1) Protect the surviving Israelis by discouraging other Muslim Powers from joining the jihad (this assumes that Israel holds back a second-strike capability),

(2) Prevent Iran from capitalizing upon its newfound popularity in the Muslim world, by causing Iran to