On the subject of ANWR

[eiredrake]

The other day some frothing right wing conservative type was on CSPAN going on about how the "radical left wing environmental movement" is to blame for all our gas woes because we won't let them drill in ANWR and in our coastal areas.

Not being particularly educated on the subject of ANWR, I decided to do a little research. Because there's nothing I hate more than some asshole telling me I'm wrong, and not being able to defend myself. The information I found out was about what I expected to find in many ways but quite startling in areas I didn't expect.

1. A 1998 USGS study estimated with a 95% certainty that ANWR might contain about 4.3 billion barrels of oil that is technically recoverable. This has never been verified in any way and drilling there has been debated since the first fuel crises during the Carter administration.
   
1. Source: USGS survey of ANWR
   
2. Current US Consumption sits at about 20,000,000 barrels of oil per day of which we import about 45% the large majority of which comes from Canada(9.6%), Saudi Arabia(8.1%) and Mexico (6.2%).
   
1. Source: US Energy Information Administration: 'Cude oil and Top Petroleum Imports'
3. In 1985 there were 305 US oil refineries with a refining capacity of: 15,659,000 barrels a day output
1. Source: US Energy Information Administration: 'Refinery Capacity and Utilization 1949-2006' (PDF)
4. As of January 2007, there are 149 refineries, are capable of refining about 17,000,000 per day total most of which are operating above 90% capacity, though some are completely idle or partly idle.
   
1. Source: US Energy Information Administration: US Refineries Operable Capacity Report January 2007 (PDF)
5. Between 1985 and 2000, 156 refineries were closed because the relative cheapness of oil lowered the profit margin of refining to the point where it wasn't economically appealing to refiners because they made more money by restricting the quantities of gasoline available on the market.
   
1. Source: Financial Sense ' High Gasoline Prices'
   
6. No new refineries have been built since 1976. 
1. Source: Numerous - Slate - 'The Great Refinery Shortage'
   
7. A new refinery costs about a $1-3 billion dollars to build
   
1. Source: CSMonitor 'A Push to Build New Refineries'
2. Source: Time Magazine ' Refining the Problem'
   
8. From the time you start building, to the time gasoline is actually produced is about five to seven years.
1. Source: Time Magazine ' Refining the Problem'
2. Source: CNN.com - Transcripts:
9. If we were to drill in ANWR enough to supply just 5% of our current daily usage ( 1,000,000 barrels ), the ANWR deposit would be completely depleted in about 12 years before we were right back where we are now
   
1. Source: Math & Wikipedia
10. Since our refineries are currently running at operational capacity they cannot handle another 1 million barrels which would require us to ship the oil to some other country to do the refining process for us. Increasing our reliance of foreign nations for our gas supply and increasing the cost to ship the oil, by tanker, pipeline or boat. Shipping the oil would increase the danger to the environment, consume additional resources and, if shipped by land require roads or pipelines to be built.
    
1. Source: Logic
11. Oil producing countries, and oil and refinery companies make more pure profit by restricting the supply of oil than they do by either increasing refinery, looking for cheaper sources of energy or by supporting cleaner renewable energies. Therefore they have no real incentive to try to change the status quo. If anything they have every incentive to use their current lobbyists to push for more war, waste and expenditure which will further restrict the supply of oil and drive the price even higher.
    
1. Source: Logic
12. The first new refinery since 1976 has been proposed to be built in Union County, South Dakota and is scheduled to break ground in the year 2010. It will take about four years for 4500 construction worker to build and cost around $10 billion dollars which means it won't be online until at least 2015. It will feature 1800 permanent full time employees and produce about 400,000 barrels of various fuels by using Tar sands from Alberta Canada. By the time this plant goes online, the Energy Information Agency predicts that the US Demand for oil will be over 24 million barrels and our total refining capacity with this plant included will be 16,059,000, putting us almost 8 million barrels per day short of our demand in capacity. At a cost of $10 billion dollars and over 3000 acres of farmland.
1. Source: New South Dakota Oil Refinery One Step Closer to Reality : Gas 2.0:
2. Energy Information Agency
   

Conclusion:

Even if we were to open up ANWR and our coast areas to oil exploration we would not see any significant reduction in the price of gasoline in either the short or long term. Even if we were to begin drilling now it would be years before we got a single drop of oil from ANWR. We have no capacity to refine whatever additional oil that we would get from these places so it wold have to be outsourced to another foreign interest until we build additional $1-3 billion dollar refineries, which take five to seven years to bring online. Since Oil companies have already proven that they are unwilling to use their own massive profits to build said refineries this would fall to the US Taxpayer to purchase the land, clear it and build and then most likely lease or outright give the oil companies the right to use these facilities.

None of these has anything to do with the environment, environmentalists or radicals of any sort. It has everything to do with basic economics and of course the profit taken in by massive corporations who feed at the public teat receiving tax incentives and breaks despite breaking all world records for profit by corporations.

Thus, ANWR isn't even a band aid to our energy problems. It is an illusory rallying call to setup by Republican neo-conservatives and complicit Democrats to fool the American people into blaming 'environmentalists' for the energy crisis all the while lining their pockets with lobbyist money from the very same oil companies causing the crisis in the first place.

And once ANWR and these coastal areas were depleted of course, we'd be right back where we started anyway, twenty years later, still bent over the barrel.

The only way to solve this problem is to change the way we do things. It has been said that the very definition of insanity to keep doing the same things over and over and expect a different outcome. So I propose the following:

• Detroit must either voluntarily comply or be forced to comply with a significant increase of CAFE standards in a realistic time frame over their entire fleets including SUVs and other vehicle types they have been dragging their feet on, and using their own profits to do it. If DIY hobbyists can get 60mpg out of a Hummer, then Detroit with all it's engineers, machinists, and millions of dollars should be able to get at least 100 mpg. Automakers that do not comply should have any tax breaks and incentives removed and will likely be forced out of business by Japanese companies who are willing to give American consumers what we're asking for. As far as I'm concerned the CEOs of those companies can take money out of their own pay if they want to keep their companies alive if not, their companies can go bankrupt which will clear the field for companies willing to innovate.
  
• Auto makers should begin manufacturing plugin electric hybrids and Hydrogen vehicles in a manner that will make them cost effective for the average citizen to afford
• Alternative, non polluting free energy sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal and tidal energy should be fully explored and exploited as much as possible especially with an uprise in electric vehicles.
• Federal and state governments should offer tax incentives, subsidies, grants and guaranteed loans to citizens wishing to switch to green forms of power and transportation. So for example, since I can't afford $4 a gallon for gasoline, but I also can't afford a $16,000 Prius the government should be there to offer me help in buying the thing in the first place. A tax rebate is nice, but doesn't help if theres no way to lower the initial buying price or monthly payment. If the government can offer loans and other such 'handouts' to foreign governments and oil companies who are causing this problem then they can do the same for the citizens who are trying to solve it.
• The Federal government should exempt any grant or subsidy from the state level for citizens switching to green power or transportation from taxes. Currently Maryland is offering up to $10k in a grant to install solar panels on your home, however this grant is considered INCOME by the federal government which means your taxes will increase because of it.
• Bio-fuels that do not depend on food crops and have comparable energy output to gasoline should be explored as well. Bio-Butinol has only 10% less power than gasoline and would require no modification to any current gasoline engine to run it. It doesn't dilute with water like Ethanol does and can be shipped in the exact manner gasoline is, yet no one is attempting to utilize it. Other biofuels such as bio diesel and algae produced fuels should also be subsidized and fostered for vehicle and home use.
• Alternate methods of energy transport should be explored as well. AC power is limited in the distance it can travel from it's transmission source other alternative methods could extend or even eliminate this restriction all together. I do not have a citation for it, but there was a Discovery Channel show that stated with current solar technology A five square mile section of the Mojave desert could provide enough power for our entire nation, the only thing preventing us from doing this is the lack of ability to get the power from the Mojave all over the country to where it is needed
• Nuclear power plants should be considered in limited numbers in order to help the process along but alternatives are available that do not require nuclear material. In the 90's two Solar power plants in the Mojave were capable of producing 10 megawatts of power but were decommissioned in 1999.
  

All of these things can be done with current technology and continued innovation if we put our attention, time and money into them. They have the potential to solve our energy problem rather than just pushing it off until later, with the added bonus of helping to solve our problem with global warming. While no one technology or innovation ( such as bio fuels ) will solve our current crisis individual, collectively they can make serious dent and bring the problems down to a more managable level. In time, further innovation will perhaps be able to eliminate our energy problems entirely. Even better, nobody needs to fight wars to see who can procure solar energy. No one needs to die because of it. These innovations will increase our security, reduce our reliance on foreign nations and lessen our direct environmental impact. We have already seen the fruits of the last hundred years worth of rampant consumption in lessening resources, increased combativeness between nations and damage to the environment. Can we really afford to keep making the same mistakes to keep oil executives in 18kt gold plated Lamborghini's while the rest of the world burns, starves, dies of dehydration and chokes in toxic fumes?

This technology can even be leased to the Chinese and the Indians in order to recoup the expenditures we made creating them, reduce their own reliance on fossil fuels, increase their own security and lessen their environmental impact. Ultimately we can make it cheaper to switch to alternative fuels and energy production than it is to stay with the old methods and whether or not the desire is there simple economics will force other nations to adopt.

The alternatives, such as drilling in ANWR, will only worsen the problem in the short term and in the long term result in only massive expended resources, a huge environmental toll and no actual change in the issue facing us. In effect we will merely kick the can down the road a few years to let someone else deal with the problem.