Comments | ed_rex: (More) Riders On the Storm

ed_rex

(More) Riders On the Storm

Aug 29, 2008 22:57

I'm a smart boy and love to be right. In '79, I argued with my dad about the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. "It'll be their Vietnam," I said and my dad, a smart man but one sometimes given to romanticism, said no, the Russians want to free Afgan women, they want to spread literacy - they're going to win this thing ( Read more... )

predictions, politics

Comments 38

pink_siamese August 30 2008, 03:39:36 UTC

It was a pretty fucking awesome speech.

I Hope So ed_rex August 30 2008, 05:28:53 UTC

I'm looking forward to watching it/listening to it in the rational light of sobriety.

Wow ed_rex August 30 2008, 21:09:35 UTC

I just watched it. And was close to blown away. The man really is inspirational.

I just might have to eat my words - and if so, I doubt I'll ever again be so pleased to be wrong.

(The comment has been removed)

God *Damn* It! ed_rex August 30 2008, 05:27:51 UTC

I thought I had added it to my memories. But when I checked "Predictions" it wasn't there. Do you know of any way I can modify it, other than reposting it as new?

(The comment has been removed)

Re: God *Damn* It! ed_rex August 30 2008, 21:39:06 UTC

Thanks for that. I'm also going to post a memo to self, linking to this posting, for the record. Right or wrong, when I make a public prediction, I'm not going to hide it.

McCain is a solid character as well -- as far as THOSE people are concerned.

I think Obama's main chance will come during the debates - if McCain is as out-of-it as I've been reading, there's some chance he'll scare even the true believers. (Yes, I live on hope sometimes.)

Thread 5

colinmarshall August 30 2008, 07:48:59 UTC

"God help us all"? Seriously? I actively dislike all four politicians at the core of the 2008 election - and actually live in America - and even I'm not that fearful.

Seriously? Yes (Mostly) ed_rex August 30 2008, 21:19:23 UTC

I'm not (and wasn't) suggesting the end of the world if McCain wins, but what with nuclear proliferation and climate change, the world faces a lot of challenges over the next few years and beyond.

The United States can be a powerful force for good in the world (no matter that I don't think it will give up its imperalism entirely - incremental improvement is a far sight better that reactionary power-politics played by a wounded animal), or for evil.

There's no question in my mind that a McCain presidency will see the US continue on its the destructive path (destructive both to the world and to the United States; the only thing worse than naked imperial aggression is incompetent naked imperial aggression).

Having now watched Obama's acceptance speech, I'm convinced his presidency would mark a genuine, positive change for the US, both internally and externally. (And - by god! - can that man give a stirring speech!)

Why do you "actively dislike" Obama?

Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly) colinmarshall August 31 2008, 01:50:12 UTC

I actively dislike Obama because of the gap between his image and substance. Now, I'm not saying that I want all this change and this hope for change that his camp touts, but I wish they wouldn't combine that grand rhetoric with what's pretty much the same old Democratic positions warmed over.

I'm actually surprised Obama's supporters don't find it insulting that he doesn't even have the decency to pull a bait-and-switch on them - the usual move for riding any kind of left-wing vote - but instead simultaneously trumpets one kind of political action and proposes another.

Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly) ed_rex August 31 2008, 19:26:50 UTC

I actively dislike Obama because of the gap between his image and substance.

I can see that. If he actually does destroy my credibility as a prognosticator on American politics and win the election, he's going to have a hell of a job ahead of him to not disappoint those who believe the tone of his rhetoric, rather than the substance of his policies.

That said, after the Bush disaster, simply running a competent government that goes some way to actually serving the people, rather than lining the pockets of cronies might be enough to at least half-way bridge that divide.

By design and both for good and for bad, the American political system is not one that is easy to change and there's only so much a President can do.

Thread 7

miyyu August 30 2008, 11:16:36 UTC

I have a similar fear. I think that race is indeed the elephant in the room and there are many, many people in this country who say they will vote Democrat but in the privacy of a voting both just won't be able to vote for a black man, even though they would never ever say it in public. I think exit polls might even reflect this. I also think that "Obama lacks experience" is often code for "Obama's not white and we can't have that."

However, my comfort is, even McCain will be better than Bush. I hope.

Here's Hoping We're Both Wrong! ed_rex August 30 2008, 21:22:34 UTC

I also think that "Obama lacks experience" is often code for "Obama's not white and we can't have that."

I just watched the acceptance speech and was very impressed by the way he dealt with the race issue - by alluding to it without explicitly mentioning it and by using his background in such a way as to make it inclusive - to any American who feels or is in some ways disenfranchised.

I really, really hope were wrong on this one.

mijopo August 30 2008, 11:24:54 UTC

I don't know, it's a coin flip to my mind. McCain's VP selection helped him, though. There was a time I thought the Democrats couldn't lose this one, now I'm not so sure. The Iraq war has become a much smaller issue for many and even if it becomes a bigger issue, McCain, by many accounts was right on the troop surge and Obama wasn't. What was once Obama's trump card seems to have negated at best or become McCain's trump card at worst.

BTW, I don't think Obama voted against the war. He certainly spoke against it publicly, but wasn't yet in the Senate when the initial vote was taken. And when he did join the Senate he voted, on more than one occasion to continue funding it.

A Master-Stroke ed_rex August 30 2008, 21:28:49 UTC

I don't think I'd never even heard of Sarah Palin until yesterday, but I think her nomination was a master-stroke.

Young to McCain's old, she's photogenic, a gun-toting anti-abortionist - yet she's, well, a she. That's going to be a hell of an inducement for those Clinton supporters who are thinking of going Republican.

I disagree with you on the troop-surge. It hasn't solved anything, but merely put the lid on things for a while. The insurgents are just biding their time. And soon as the US "declares victory" and leaves, the civil war there will be back big time.

And thanks, you're right that he didn't vote against the war - he was still in state government at the time, not federal. But he did speak out against it, much to his credit.

And when he did join the Senate he voted, on more than one occasion to continue funding it.

Bloody hell. Are you sure about that?

Re: A Master-Stroke mijopo August 31 2008, 04:34:48 UTC

I agree with you completely that the Palin nomination was a master stroke.

I'm not claiming that the troop surge worked but I am claiming that there is a fairly widely held *perception* that it worked.

Bloody hell. Are you sure about that?

Afraid so, see, for example, http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/03/22/obama_defends_votes_in_favor_of_iraq_funding/

Re: A Master-Stroke ed_rex August 31 2008, 18:00:26 UTC

Well, that's a healthy (if not happy) does of cold political water. Of course, I knew Obama was no socialist or anything close to it; but it's still disappointing.

[Edit]

I'm not claiming that the troop surge worked but I am claiming that there is a fairly widely held *perception* that it worked.

We're in agreement on that, then. Thanks for the clarification.