Quotes from “The Biological Consequences of Nuclear War” by Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, from
The Cold and the Dark. I've been reading this book for research purposes and some of the assumptions about society/survival below the equator are rubbing me the wrong way. Here's a couple examples with the bits I'm most particularly side-eyeing bolded:
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I will have more thoughts in the morning when I am less tired.
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I question the assumption that people would be forced to stake out areas of tropical rainforest to farm in order to sustain things. It's certainly a reasonable response, but I don't think it's the only reasonable response. (I am reminded of what 1491 had to say about how the economy worked before the arrival of Columbus. Doubt that is something people would go back to easily, but it is a possibility.)
Just based on looking at maps, I'd expect interior trade in South America to shift to the river. Keep in mind, I know nothing about the conditions of these rivers as places for shipping along.
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The main short-term constraint would be lack of oil and industrial imports. Most of Africa is now reliant on moving goods around by road. So it would certainly get ugly, and a lot of people would die. But in the medium to long term, Africa has a lot of oil, a lot of mines, a lot of factories, millions of engineers, and several regions that are net food exporters (Uganda, Senegal, South Africa) even with relatively modest inputs of machinery and fertilizer.
2) Africa is full of universities. To be fair to Ehrlich, this was not necessarily the case in 1983; Africa today is producing about 10 times as many college graduates per annum as it was 30 years ago.
Doug M.
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In terms of large countries that could still soldier on, you've got Mexico, India, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. Lots to work with.
Africa in 1983 would be both better and worse off than today. Better off because it was less dependent on imports, especially of oil and machinery; almost everyone was a subsistence farmer or close to it. Worse because almost everyone was a subsistence farmer or close to it.
Doug M.
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In a nutshell, it comes down to this:
Green Zone: any country/territory fully below the Equator.
Yellow Zone: any country/territory between the Equator and the Tropic of Cancer. Includes countries split by the Equator.
Orange Zone: any country/territory between the Tropic of Cancer and 30 degrees North latitude. Includes countries split by the Tropic of Cancer.
Red Zone: any country/territory between 30 degrees North Latitude and the Arctic Circle. Includes countries split by 30 degrees North latitude.
In the case of countries that are split, they're downgraded into the next worse zone though I'm thinking that in general only the areas that are actually within that worse zone (plus or minus some overlap since weather patterns and air currents don't follow lines of latitude exactly) are going to receive the effects
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So I don't think you'd need traditional American farms in the rainforest to support a large population.
Also, I think all the universities and schools in the Southern Hemisphere would be very offended by this guy.
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