25 Iyar, 5771

[dj_clawson]

Recently I watched The Sun Behind the Clouds, a Tibetan documentary covering the events of 2008 and the general political mood of the Tibetan refugee community. Like most Tibetan documentaries, it was depressing, because it's a depressing situation. (The highly-recommended Unmistaken Child is an exception to the rule)

The summary of the movie is a

Comments

[benlehman]

It's interesting that people who are interested in Tibet or Xinjiang assume that unrest is primarily in minority areas, or that any sort of general uprising will occur in minority areas. The government is not really popular with the Han, and it's pretty oppressive to them. If the Tibetans were actually armed and ready and prepared, they could easily take advantage of a Han uprising.

Of course, an independent Tibet would only last for a couple of years before destitute poverty collapsed the government, at which point whatever Chinese government existed would be back. But, you know, that's pretty much unavoidable unless they're interested in union with India or whatever.

yrs--
--Ben

[dj_clawson]

One of the main points the Dalai Lama has about autonomy over independence is financial - he knows Tibet needs money for economic development that China can afford to give it. He stresses this in the movie.

As much as Westerners are accused of romanticizing pre-1949 Tibet, Tibetans are often guilty of the same, especially the ones in exile. Or they figure the costs of independence would be outweighed by the good. Most revolutionaries do think that way - not in terms of economic stability and development but in terms of "our current ruler sucks - let's get him out."

Or, theoretically, many of them could be happy with a kind of pre-industrial nation like Bhutan, which has little contact with the outside world out of choice, and operates as a Buddhist constitutional monarchy in a fairly stable fashion. On the one hand they still get smallpox and stuff, on the other they have remarkably little discontent and dissent.

[benlehman]

Let's be clear: the Bhutanese govt. is supported by a highly active secret police and regular purges and ethnic cleansing of hindus or people suspected of being heterodox. There's fairly regular dissent, it's just fairly regularly put down.

I don't believe a country the size of Tibet could sustain that sort of government for long: the country is just too large, too difficult to control. Bhutan pulls it off because:
1) It's tiny. Everywhere is pretty close to the center of control.
2) It has absolutely no natural resources that another country might want.

Tibet has neither of these things.

yrs--
--Ben

[benlehman]

In retrospect, that comment was unnecessarily grouchy. Sorry! :(