The probability that I will understand....

[deponti]

I canNOT understand probability theories. I think that everything is just 50-50...either it will happen or occur, or it will not.

On a mailing list that I belong to, someone attempted to explain it to me (as also to children who are facing the concept for the first time). But....

I can TELL myself all this:

On Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 2:15 PM, L H

Comments

[idahoswede]

Sounds about right as far as my thought processes go as well.

[beast_666]

Now that's an oversimplified view. And let's see where the reasoning goes..well.. wrong

The probability here could be described as defined by classical probability, which basically gives you a rough estimate of your chances based on a (theoretically) infinite trials.

So, if you were to toss a die an infinite number of times, your probability of getting a 1 on each roll would NOT be half the time (1 or not 1), but will be reduced to about 1/6 of the time, assuming it is a fair and unloaded die, considering the die is equally likely to land on any one of the six faces at any given time. Which is to say you're likely to NOT get a 1 about 5/6 of the time the die is tossed.

Now, if you were to consider the (event A or Event B =not event A) case, you'd have to think of a scenario where the events are mutually exclusive, and there are no other events possible.

(Hope that helps a bit at least :) )

[deponti]

No. I still cannot think of anything other than a single occasion, where I will get a 1...or not. :(((

[beast_666]

Think of it this way.. If you keep trying to get a 1, you'll be more often disappointed than happy, and not happy and disappointed an equal number of times..lol

[deponti]

Yes....50-50 :)))

[pondhopper]

I'm with Carolyn.
It's all gibberish to me.

[deponti]

Join the Gibberish Club :)