Comments | darkcards: I'm trying to figure out if I played this wrong

burb316 in darkcards

I'm trying to figure out if I played this wrong

Jan 31, 2008 09:37

I'm at the trop in AC, sitting on a 1-2 table with 600 in front of me. I've caught some great cards tonight. One hand that got me to where i was, was playing 9/10 suited in the middle position in a limped pot. flopping an open ender and I call this guys bet for 15, with 3 other callers. Turn comes a J, no flush draws out there so I have the ( Read more... )

Comments 21

lifeofmendel January 31 2008, 19:31:18 UTC

you should go out and get the book "professional no limit hold em" by ed miller, sunny mehta, and some other guy. The above hand is a *perfect* example of a hand that may have been played correctly if you look at each street in isolation, but was played incorrectly because you didn't have a long-term plan ( ... )

keevon January 31 2008, 20:01:27 UTC

As requested:

= 0.5($77) + 0.5($236.25 + $62.50)
= $38.5 + $298.75
= $337.25

should be

= 0.5($77) + 0.5($236.25 + $62.50)
= $38.5 + $149.38
= $187.88

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis though.

lifeofmendel January 31 2008, 20:04:15 UTC

oops!

lifeofmendel January 31 2008, 21:30:22 UTC

one last thing to add is that this makes it seem that moving in was incorrect because the EV for pushing is less, but that will change with the probabilities. If you think it's more likely that he has trips versus top pair, you should check and then fold to a bet. If you think it's more likely that he has top pair, you should push.

Thread 19

keevon January 31 2008, 19:36:38 UTC

FWIW Hand 1 is a 3bet on the river because people don't fold trips and he almost never has a boat.

Hand 2 is fine, and you can probably just push on the flop since effective stacks aren't too deep.

keevon January 31 2008, 21:26:54 UTC

I also want to point out that in hand 1 you aren't betting enough. On the turn, you bet something like 1/4 pot, which is excusible since you are showing a lot of strength by suddenly taking the betting initiative, so it's more of a feeler to see who is still interested. Not to mention this is live, so people don't think about bets in terms of pot size as much as they think of how "big" the bet looks.

The river however you need to be betting at least 1/2 pot for value instead of 1/5 or so. There is no reason to be scared of that J pairing since his hand range contains almost no 2-pair or set type hands - he almost surely will raise at some point before the river with those. I'd say his most likely hands right now include Js, and POSSIBLY a really stubborn 99/TT.