Bullshit

[dariusk]

 Wow, this is the most bullshit call ever.

I think Obama is going to win, and I am not nearly as pessimistic as springheel_jack  on the matter, but there is no way in hell he is taking all Kerry states plus "Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina." That is ridiculous.

If 538.com manages to be right about this... man, I dunno

Comments

[nishmael]

I can't tell if you're kidding, but, uh, have you been watching poll info at all? :)

[dariusk]

I'm not kidding. Are you talking exit polls? Because the very same 538 folks posted a nice article on why exit polls mean nothing.

[mikecap]

It's entirely possible that McCain and his campaign completely fucked themselves with Sarah Palin. She's a complete fool, and unless the middle range of voters is completely insane, they won't vote with her on the ticket. It's too risky to have someone as unqualified as her in office, and I honestly can't believe that half of this country wouldn't see that.

Couple that with the economy, and we could have an extremely decisive win. Clinton won on the economy, though Ross Perot did help him out immensely by taking a lot of the middle ground vote away from Bush the First.

[mikecap]

I suggest buying a lottery ticket for the improbable thing to do, if you don't play lottery already. If you win big, I'll only ask for a couple percent of it. :D

[bsdcat]

Electoral-vote.com is making a similar call: that is, going by the most recent polling numbers, Obama will win with 353 electoral votes... FiveThirtyEight.com's probabilistic model putting it at 348 is actually more believable.

I'm guessing around 300, myself, though.

[bryant]

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado -- yes. Strong polling.

I can't imagine Obama winning Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. He's ahead by slim margins in all those states, but that doesn't mean he'll win all of them. I suspect Nate's gotten a bit carried away by the individual probabilities.

[londo]

While I am not myself a polling expert and thus unqualified to judge, all the pundits I've seen are guessing 340 plus or minus.

[dirkcjelli]

I'm guessing 300-370 myself.

CO would go D in a fair election... I'll, in fact, decide whether it was one based on how CO turns out.

[dirkcjelli]

Here's another fun question... how high do you think the turnout will be?

[lil_laurel]

truth be told, at least on a state level, i'm as curious about the voter turnout numbers as i am about the results.

[dirkcjelli]

Imagine, for a second, you're a Republican in Florida.

You head down to the polls at noon, on your lunch break.

You see a line of hippies wrapped around the block, waiting to vote.

Do you wait in line for an hour, or throw up your hands and say the hell with it?

Okay, put yourself in the opposite position. Mainstream Democrat. You've seen the last two elections, and they were squeakers. You're not a left-wing loon like me, so Obama isn't as far from your ideal... damn straight you wait in line, because you buy into the "something big is happening" meme. I think 538 is going to come out mildly Conservative in its estimates.