There ought to be a percentage of those groups you can deduct for being crazy and/or unaware of the politics. I'd say at least 5% of people vote contrary to their own interests. It's probably a much larger percentage than that, but I don't want to speculate too much.
The standard crazification factor seems to be just under or over 20%, but for purposes of consistency and roundness we can call it 1 in 5. Even allowing for the crazification factor, that means the GOP are counting on very nearly 40% more people voting against their own interests this fall. It might work in places like Kansas and backwoods Pennsylvania, but that's not a whole lot of electors.
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